Post by beakers2 on May 25, 2018 17:24:21 GMT
2.15 Haydock – Amix Ready Mixed Concrete Handicap
The verdict goes to Saeed bin Suroor’s GOOD RUN in this contest, who usually has a good record when going fresh and hasn’t been seen since July 2017. He acts primarily on the soft however also operates to a useful standard on good to firm ground.
Mancini looks to be the chief danger in this field under Richard Kingscote as all three of his wins have been under Richard, most recently at Lingfield over the 2 ½ mile trip. The handicapper has upped him 8lb for that victory which makes us look elsewhere in the field but has each-way claims nonetheless.
The Grand Visir is an interesting runner here who has some exceptional entries to his name, including the Ascot Gold Cup and the Northumberland Plate, so connections think he is doing all the right things at home to warrant those entries.
Another worthy of consideration is Byron Flyer who wasn’t seen to best effect last time out and with Silvestre De Sousa booked, he could be interesting.
Advice
GOOD RUN – 1pt ew @ 15/2 (Sky Bet) (3 places – 1/5 odds)
2.30 Goodwood – Netbet Sport Handicap.
There’s a really odd shape to this big-field seven-furlong handicap with John Gosden’s Emaraaty and George Scott’s Another Batt heading the weights with ratings of 109 and 106 respectively, while most of the rest of the field is rated in the high 80’s or low 90’s. While it does mean that these two are significantly better than the rest of the field on what they’ve shown so far, it does open the door for those who have the potential to be much better than their current mark.
Emaraaty, from John Gosden’s stable, has always been very highly thought of and after a runaway win over 7f at Newcastle last time out, it is odd to see him running in a handicap like this off such a high mark rather than stepping up into black type races. Interestingly for a horse that’s related to so many classy mile/mile and a quarter horses, he holds Group 1 entries in the 6f Commonwealth Cup and the July Cup over the same trip, suggesting a sprinting campaign could be the way connections will go with him. Still, this seven-furlong handicap just seems a strange decision for me and with Kieran Shoemark on board (no disrespect to him), it’s not as if they look desperate to win the race. Stall 11 isn’t ideal either and I think giving a stone to pretty much the whole field might be a tough task, even though he’s clearly a quality animal. The addition of a hood is another strange one for me – he hasn’t seemed as if he’s needed one so far. Yes, he was a tad keen, but he still bolted up, so it’s another major question surrounding this horse.
The other horse that is high in the weights is the George Scott-trained Another Batt, who was a winner of a 7.5f handicap at the recent Chester May Festival. He may have only won by a neck that day, but the front two were well clear of the rest, hence the 6lb rise in the weights. This is a better race than that contest and even though David Egan’s 3lb claim helps to offset that rise, I can’t help but think that giving weight to a lot of promising types and being stuck out in stall 12 could be too much to ask.
Favourite at the time of writing is one such promising type is the William Haggas-trained Society Power, who is unfortunate not to be unbeaten after five starts. After a close second on his racecourse debut, the son of Society Rock has won four on the bounce, including two races in handicaps, both by half a length or less. A subsequent 6lb rise looks harsh though and the hold-up style that he’s adopted isn’t ideal for Goodwood to say the least, especially if he’s going to be restrained from stall 2 on the inside, so despite a progressive profile, there could be others that are better value.
The horse that stands out to me as one who could be well-handicapped and a huge beneficiary of the odd look to the weights for this race is the Clive Cox-trained Grand Koonta. Highly-tried as a two-year-old, including being beaten less than six lengths in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket and the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury, this son of Dark Angel starts life in his first handicap from a mark of 97. Usually, this would mean carrying plenty of weight, but here he only carries 8st9lb – significantly less than he’s ever shouldered in a race. In that Mill Reef Stakes, he wasn’t far (3-5 lengths) behind 105+ rated horses including James Garfield and Invincible Army, so this drop in class should see him in an excellent light from a mark that could well be generous. Of course he will have to be tuned up for this, his first start in 245 days, and that is certainly a big question mark on this first attempt at 7f, but his good draw in three, his very tasty looking racing weight and the booking of Gerald Mosse (5-18 for this yard) are all big positives and I think this extra furlong on decent ground will be spot on for GRAND KOONTA, who is surely a big price at 14/1.
In terms of threats, John Gosden’s apparent second string, Fennaan, is an unexposed sort who could be a player – he was fourth to Society Power at Ascot last time out, but he pulled very hard on that occasion, so can be excused the defeat. If he can break well and settle better here at this more ‘interesting’ track, he might just go much closer to that rival and that certainly wouldn’t leave him with too much to find. Still, with Group-class horses running here, you can’t help but think he’s got a bit too much on his plate despite a nice racing weight of 8st 5lb.
Finally, the in-form yard of Eve Johnson-Houghton has a representative here in the shape of Statuario, who bolted up at Chepstow at the start of the month from a 10lb lower mark. Despite that rise and this drop in trip, if this son of Helmet can get free on the front end under 5lb claimer Gabriele Malune, he could be a tough horse to pass. The quicker ground is certainly a question for him, as is the fact that he’s inly shown his best at Chepstow so far, but he’s still an interesting runner.
Advice
GRAND KOONTA – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (4 places 1/4 odds) (William Hill, Coral)
3.00 Curragh – Cold Move Irish EBF Marble Hill Stakes (Listed Race)
Aidan O’Brien saddles three in this field however the standout of the trio is FAIRYLAND. Whilst Van Beethoven and Land Force have improved in leaps and bounds since their debut efforts, they may struggle to give away the weight and still come out on top.
The selection is a 925,000gns purchase and winning this race can punch her ticket to Royal Ascot for the Albany. Van Beethoven will be the one to give her the most to do given she is the first choice of Ryan Moore in this race and has each-way claims himself. It’s highly possible that Aidan O’Brien will train the first three home in this race and therefore a combination tricast on the aforementioned runners may be worth a second look.
Evasive Power could be one to progress from his debut win at Navan whilst the rest are maidens in another quality field and can only be watched this time around.
Advice
FAIRYLAND – 1pt win @ SP
3.25 Haydock – Armstrong Aggregates Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2)
This sprint has been won by some real quality performers in recent seasons including Slade Power, Quiet Reflection and Harry Angel to name just three. This year’s renewal has only attracted eight runners but it looks full of quality and it would be no surprise to see the winner make waves in the sprinting division as the season goes on.
Clive Cox won this race with Harry Angel twelve months ago and he is represented by the filly Heartache this time around. She caused something of a shock when winning at Royal Ascot last season and although she was beaten next time in the Prix Robert Papin, she finished the campaign by beating Havana Grey to win the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster in September. She concedes race fitness to most of the field here and with this also being her first try at 6f, I think she is worth taking on at the head of the market.
Another making their seasonal reappearance is Barraquero, who was sidelined with injury in the second half of last season. He looked a colt of some potential when winning the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood, with the likes of Nebo, Cardsharp and Headway all in behind him that day. In some ways, he is probably the most exciting horse in the line-up given his lightly-raced profile but for all it would be no surprise to see him win, he would have to be very good to win this first time out.
The Pavilion Stakes run at Ascot is another early-season race which often throws up a smart winner and this year’s race went the way of Invincible Army. He wasn’t far off the best two-year-olds last year but looked to have improved over the winter when winning at Ascot. The form of that race wasn’t exactly franked last week but he still warrants plenty of respect.
George Scott has high hopes for James Garfield this season and his colt has already won a big prize this term, having taken the Greenham Stakes at Newbury back in April. That set him up for a tilt at the 2,000 Guineas and in fairness he wasn’t beaten far but connections believe his future lies back over sprint trips.
However, I think the one to beat here could be SANDS OF MALI who won the Gimcrack at York last summer, finishing two and three-quarter lengths ahead of Invincible Army on that occasion. He was disappointing at Newmarket after that but ran well over 1m at the Breeders’ Cup after that. He comes here with a run under his belt having got up close home to win the Group 3 Prix Sigy in April and I think he arguably has the best form in the race here. He seems versatile in terms of ground and with the stable amongst the winners, he looks to have plenty going in his favour here.
One last one to mention who could be overpriced is Actress who is available with some firms at 25/1. Her last three runs haven’t been good enough to win a race of this quality but the key to her could be the ground and she seems likely to get quick ground on Saturday. She won a Group 3 and was third in Group 1 company on good to firm ground last term and if the ground remains in her favour, she could outrun her sizeable odds.
Advice
SANDS OF MALI – 1pt win @ 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)
3.40 York – MansionBet Sprint Stakes
It’s highly likely that we can expect confidence in the betting behind El Astronaute for this contest and whilst he holds obvious claims after his win here last week, the handicapper has raised him 3lb for that effort which puts him in at 9st 8lb and that may prove decisive with this quick turnaround.
Carlton Frankie led the field in the same race eventually finishing fourth and will be high on the shortlist here with the benefit of the recent run in him however MAJOR JUMBO was ahead of her,
finishing third, after being up with the pace throughout the race and has Cameron Noble’s claim to help.
Dakota Gold had a battle with the selection in September and there should be little between the pair again.
Final Venture comes into this race off a lenient mark which is 10lb lower than his previous mark and Mr Lupton cannot be ruled out as he is a regular in these large field handicaps.
The remainder of the field are 10/1 and bigger for this event but they are worth a mention nonetheless. Edward Lewis was a beaten favourite on his last time out when finishing fifth of eighteen runners behind El Astronaute over a similar 5-furlong trip.
Evergate was outpaced in his last start finishing a close second in the end.
Duke of Firenze arrives with modest form and never threatened in his last outing which steers me away from him here.
Advice
MAJOR JUMBO – 0.5pt e/w @ 7/1 (SkyBet) (5 places – 1/5 odds)
4.10 Curragh – Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1)
The vibes coming out of Mark Johnston’s stable have been strong regarding Elarqam’s claims of landing the Irish 2,000 Guineas. The Frankel colt still showed signs of inexperience at Newmarket when fourth to Saxon Warrior, breaking slowly from the stalls and whilst it is a stretch to say he would have won, he would certainly have finished closer to the winner if breaking on terms. I expect he will be suited by the track at The Curragh and if he improves for that run, he could be hard to beat here but personally I think he is short enough at 7/4.
It might seem a lazy proposition to just side with Aidan O’Brien but considering he has saddled seven of the last ten winners of this race, we could do worse than consider the Ballydoyle team. He has four representatives here but Gustav Klimt and U S Navy Flag look the pick of them. The former was well-fancied for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in the days leading up to the race but was friendless on the day and ended up going off at 4/1. He was beaten less than four lengths but never looked like getting involved which was disappointing considering how impressive he was when winning at Leopardstown on his return to action. It is hard to find an obvious excuse but if he bounced back to form, he would be right in the mix.
However, I prefer the claims of his stablemate U S NAVY FLAG who was fifth in the French Guineas last time. He was drawn wide on that occasion so used up plenty of petrol early on to bag the lead and he also stumbled coming down the hill. Despite that, he still wasn’t far and given a more favourable trip he would have been bang there. He seems to relish fast ground which he is likely to get on Saturday and given his proven record in Group 1 company, at the prices, I prefer him to the favourite Elarqam.
The dark horse in the field could be Zihba who was purchased by Al Shaqab racing this week. Fozzy Stack’s colt is the only unbeaten colt in the field and extended his winning run to three when landing the Group 3 Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown a couple of weeks ago. In terms of form, it is hard to get an accurate gauge on his ability but having only had the three starts, he could be open to any amount of improvement.
One final one to mention is Symbolization who has done little wrong in his four starts to date. He got his head in front for the second time at Newmarket last time but that was only a handicap so he will need to step forward to be competitive in this sort of grade. However, with the stable’s Masar having run well in the Guineas at Newmarket they should have a fair idea as to where they stand and he could run better than his current odds suggest.
Advice
U S NAVY FLAG – 1pt win @ 3/1 (SkyBet, William Hill)
4.45 Curragh – Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group 2)
Aidan O’Brien has only once won this race once since 2004 when it was established. However, HYDRANGEA can add a second win here.
Last season she signed off in style at Ascot, beating Bateel by 2 lengths, and had claimed a brace of Group 1 victories prior.
Goldrush seems the only obvious challenger to the selection after achieving an awful lot in such a short space of time last year, but she looks up against it nonetheless.
Making Light is a useful filly in her own right after some excellent form at Leopardstown and Naas. However, this is a big step up and she will have to produce a career-best to get involved.
It’s hard to make a case for the other runners, Nivvo, Opal Tiara and Xenobia, as the first three in the betting look to be a class above.
Advice
HYDRANGEA – 2pts win @ SP
5.30 Goodwood – European Breeders’ Fund Fillies’ Novice Stakes (MW)
For a Class 5 Novice event, this looks a serious contest, with a fair few fillies looking capable of very decent form and ratings in the 90’s.
The highest rated filly (on official ratings anyway) is the Paul Cole-trained Musical Art, who has been an also-ran in Group contests on her last four starts after a winning debut run at Newbury. This will be her first run in a handicap so we are yet to see whether a mark of 97 may be lenient or may be harsh, but on the way she’s run in said Group contests, both here and in France, it does look very harsh. Combine this with a draw in 13 and 210 days off the track and I think she’s one worth opposing.
At the other end of the experience scale is the maiden winner, Beauty Filly, from the stable of the in-form William Haggas. She was an impressive winner at Yarmouth under Ryan Moore and with just the one run under her belt, surely has plenty more to come. She’s a half-sister to the very useful Ashadihan and Mythical Madness, so there’s plenty in her pedigree, while she’s certainly in good hands. However, 247 days off means she’ll have to be razor sharp in this hot contest, while the form of the win at Yarmouth isn’t exactly bombproof, so she’s likely to be a shorter price than she should be.
The Cheveley Park filly, Homeopathic, was a winner on her debut last season and was a little unlucky not to follow it up on her reappearance this year at Wolverhampton – she was hampered in second behind John Gosden’s Derrymore who went off favourite in the Listed Height of Fashion Stakes at this track on Thursday before disappointing. A half-sister to the useful Diagnostic with a nice Cheveley Park pedigree, you would hope that she’d be up to a contest like this and Sir Michael Stoute isn’t one to tilt at windmills, so this filly should certainly be on your shortlists.
However, the filly I really like here is the Richard Hannon-trained NATURAL, who has been highly-tried both in her two-year-old season in Group and Listed contests and on her first run this season, where she was seventh of 11 in the Fred Darling. Dropped back to novice company and six furlongs at Lingfield, she was again handed a poor draw, but broke fast to lead and was only worn down in the final strides by a filly she had to give a barrow-load of weight to. This return to seven furlongs on a tight track and on good ground should be perfect for this Kodiac filly and she also has a decent draw in 6, giving her options in terms of position. She’s match fit and surely must go well.
As for those who don’t carry a penalty for winning, Bella Regazza is an interesting contender for Hughie Morrison after making a promising debut in a decent race at Newbury. She looked as if she’d come on plenty for that run and could be a player here, even if she’ll have to improve a lot to challenge the likes of the 90-rated fillies.
Advice
NATURAL – 1pt win @ 3/1 (bet365)
The verdict goes to Saeed bin Suroor’s GOOD RUN in this contest, who usually has a good record when going fresh and hasn’t been seen since July 2017. He acts primarily on the soft however also operates to a useful standard on good to firm ground.
Mancini looks to be the chief danger in this field under Richard Kingscote as all three of his wins have been under Richard, most recently at Lingfield over the 2 ½ mile trip. The handicapper has upped him 8lb for that victory which makes us look elsewhere in the field but has each-way claims nonetheless.
The Grand Visir is an interesting runner here who has some exceptional entries to his name, including the Ascot Gold Cup and the Northumberland Plate, so connections think he is doing all the right things at home to warrant those entries.
Another worthy of consideration is Byron Flyer who wasn’t seen to best effect last time out and with Silvestre De Sousa booked, he could be interesting.
Advice
GOOD RUN – 1pt ew @ 15/2 (Sky Bet) (3 places – 1/5 odds)
2.30 Goodwood – Netbet Sport Handicap.
There’s a really odd shape to this big-field seven-furlong handicap with John Gosden’s Emaraaty and George Scott’s Another Batt heading the weights with ratings of 109 and 106 respectively, while most of the rest of the field is rated in the high 80’s or low 90’s. While it does mean that these two are significantly better than the rest of the field on what they’ve shown so far, it does open the door for those who have the potential to be much better than their current mark.
Emaraaty, from John Gosden’s stable, has always been very highly thought of and after a runaway win over 7f at Newcastle last time out, it is odd to see him running in a handicap like this off such a high mark rather than stepping up into black type races. Interestingly for a horse that’s related to so many classy mile/mile and a quarter horses, he holds Group 1 entries in the 6f Commonwealth Cup and the July Cup over the same trip, suggesting a sprinting campaign could be the way connections will go with him. Still, this seven-furlong handicap just seems a strange decision for me and with Kieran Shoemark on board (no disrespect to him), it’s not as if they look desperate to win the race. Stall 11 isn’t ideal either and I think giving a stone to pretty much the whole field might be a tough task, even though he’s clearly a quality animal. The addition of a hood is another strange one for me – he hasn’t seemed as if he’s needed one so far. Yes, he was a tad keen, but he still bolted up, so it’s another major question surrounding this horse.
The other horse that is high in the weights is the George Scott-trained Another Batt, who was a winner of a 7.5f handicap at the recent Chester May Festival. He may have only won by a neck that day, but the front two were well clear of the rest, hence the 6lb rise in the weights. This is a better race than that contest and even though David Egan’s 3lb claim helps to offset that rise, I can’t help but think that giving weight to a lot of promising types and being stuck out in stall 12 could be too much to ask.
Favourite at the time of writing is one such promising type is the William Haggas-trained Society Power, who is unfortunate not to be unbeaten after five starts. After a close second on his racecourse debut, the son of Society Rock has won four on the bounce, including two races in handicaps, both by half a length or less. A subsequent 6lb rise looks harsh though and the hold-up style that he’s adopted isn’t ideal for Goodwood to say the least, especially if he’s going to be restrained from stall 2 on the inside, so despite a progressive profile, there could be others that are better value.
The horse that stands out to me as one who could be well-handicapped and a huge beneficiary of the odd look to the weights for this race is the Clive Cox-trained Grand Koonta. Highly-tried as a two-year-old, including being beaten less than six lengths in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket and the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury, this son of Dark Angel starts life in his first handicap from a mark of 97. Usually, this would mean carrying plenty of weight, but here he only carries 8st9lb – significantly less than he’s ever shouldered in a race. In that Mill Reef Stakes, he wasn’t far (3-5 lengths) behind 105+ rated horses including James Garfield and Invincible Army, so this drop in class should see him in an excellent light from a mark that could well be generous. Of course he will have to be tuned up for this, his first start in 245 days, and that is certainly a big question mark on this first attempt at 7f, but his good draw in three, his very tasty looking racing weight and the booking of Gerald Mosse (5-18 for this yard) are all big positives and I think this extra furlong on decent ground will be spot on for GRAND KOONTA, who is surely a big price at 14/1.
In terms of threats, John Gosden’s apparent second string, Fennaan, is an unexposed sort who could be a player – he was fourth to Society Power at Ascot last time out, but he pulled very hard on that occasion, so can be excused the defeat. If he can break well and settle better here at this more ‘interesting’ track, he might just go much closer to that rival and that certainly wouldn’t leave him with too much to find. Still, with Group-class horses running here, you can’t help but think he’s got a bit too much on his plate despite a nice racing weight of 8st 5lb.
Finally, the in-form yard of Eve Johnson-Houghton has a representative here in the shape of Statuario, who bolted up at Chepstow at the start of the month from a 10lb lower mark. Despite that rise and this drop in trip, if this son of Helmet can get free on the front end under 5lb claimer Gabriele Malune, he could be a tough horse to pass. The quicker ground is certainly a question for him, as is the fact that he’s inly shown his best at Chepstow so far, but he’s still an interesting runner.
Advice
GRAND KOONTA – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (4 places 1/4 odds) (William Hill, Coral)
3.00 Curragh – Cold Move Irish EBF Marble Hill Stakes (Listed Race)
Aidan O’Brien saddles three in this field however the standout of the trio is FAIRYLAND. Whilst Van Beethoven and Land Force have improved in leaps and bounds since their debut efforts, they may struggle to give away the weight and still come out on top.
The selection is a 925,000gns purchase and winning this race can punch her ticket to Royal Ascot for the Albany. Van Beethoven will be the one to give her the most to do given she is the first choice of Ryan Moore in this race and has each-way claims himself. It’s highly possible that Aidan O’Brien will train the first three home in this race and therefore a combination tricast on the aforementioned runners may be worth a second look.
Evasive Power could be one to progress from his debut win at Navan whilst the rest are maidens in another quality field and can only be watched this time around.
Advice
FAIRYLAND – 1pt win @ SP
3.25 Haydock – Armstrong Aggregates Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2)
This sprint has been won by some real quality performers in recent seasons including Slade Power, Quiet Reflection and Harry Angel to name just three. This year’s renewal has only attracted eight runners but it looks full of quality and it would be no surprise to see the winner make waves in the sprinting division as the season goes on.
Clive Cox won this race with Harry Angel twelve months ago and he is represented by the filly Heartache this time around. She caused something of a shock when winning at Royal Ascot last season and although she was beaten next time in the Prix Robert Papin, she finished the campaign by beating Havana Grey to win the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster in September. She concedes race fitness to most of the field here and with this also being her first try at 6f, I think she is worth taking on at the head of the market.
Another making their seasonal reappearance is Barraquero, who was sidelined with injury in the second half of last season. He looked a colt of some potential when winning the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood, with the likes of Nebo, Cardsharp and Headway all in behind him that day. In some ways, he is probably the most exciting horse in the line-up given his lightly-raced profile but for all it would be no surprise to see him win, he would have to be very good to win this first time out.
The Pavilion Stakes run at Ascot is another early-season race which often throws up a smart winner and this year’s race went the way of Invincible Army. He wasn’t far off the best two-year-olds last year but looked to have improved over the winter when winning at Ascot. The form of that race wasn’t exactly franked last week but he still warrants plenty of respect.
George Scott has high hopes for James Garfield this season and his colt has already won a big prize this term, having taken the Greenham Stakes at Newbury back in April. That set him up for a tilt at the 2,000 Guineas and in fairness he wasn’t beaten far but connections believe his future lies back over sprint trips.
However, I think the one to beat here could be SANDS OF MALI who won the Gimcrack at York last summer, finishing two and three-quarter lengths ahead of Invincible Army on that occasion. He was disappointing at Newmarket after that but ran well over 1m at the Breeders’ Cup after that. He comes here with a run under his belt having got up close home to win the Group 3 Prix Sigy in April and I think he arguably has the best form in the race here. He seems versatile in terms of ground and with the stable amongst the winners, he looks to have plenty going in his favour here.
One last one to mention who could be overpriced is Actress who is available with some firms at 25/1. Her last three runs haven’t been good enough to win a race of this quality but the key to her could be the ground and she seems likely to get quick ground on Saturday. She won a Group 3 and was third in Group 1 company on good to firm ground last term and if the ground remains in her favour, she could outrun her sizeable odds.
Advice
SANDS OF MALI – 1pt win @ 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)
3.40 York – MansionBet Sprint Stakes
It’s highly likely that we can expect confidence in the betting behind El Astronaute for this contest and whilst he holds obvious claims after his win here last week, the handicapper has raised him 3lb for that effort which puts him in at 9st 8lb and that may prove decisive with this quick turnaround.
Carlton Frankie led the field in the same race eventually finishing fourth and will be high on the shortlist here with the benefit of the recent run in him however MAJOR JUMBO was ahead of her,
finishing third, after being up with the pace throughout the race and has Cameron Noble’s claim to help.
Dakota Gold had a battle with the selection in September and there should be little between the pair again.
Final Venture comes into this race off a lenient mark which is 10lb lower than his previous mark and Mr Lupton cannot be ruled out as he is a regular in these large field handicaps.
The remainder of the field are 10/1 and bigger for this event but they are worth a mention nonetheless. Edward Lewis was a beaten favourite on his last time out when finishing fifth of eighteen runners behind El Astronaute over a similar 5-furlong trip.
Evergate was outpaced in his last start finishing a close second in the end.
Duke of Firenze arrives with modest form and never threatened in his last outing which steers me away from him here.
Advice
MAJOR JUMBO – 0.5pt e/w @ 7/1 (SkyBet) (5 places – 1/5 odds)
4.10 Curragh – Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1)
The vibes coming out of Mark Johnston’s stable have been strong regarding Elarqam’s claims of landing the Irish 2,000 Guineas. The Frankel colt still showed signs of inexperience at Newmarket when fourth to Saxon Warrior, breaking slowly from the stalls and whilst it is a stretch to say he would have won, he would certainly have finished closer to the winner if breaking on terms. I expect he will be suited by the track at The Curragh and if he improves for that run, he could be hard to beat here but personally I think he is short enough at 7/4.
It might seem a lazy proposition to just side with Aidan O’Brien but considering he has saddled seven of the last ten winners of this race, we could do worse than consider the Ballydoyle team. He has four representatives here but Gustav Klimt and U S Navy Flag look the pick of them. The former was well-fancied for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in the days leading up to the race but was friendless on the day and ended up going off at 4/1. He was beaten less than four lengths but never looked like getting involved which was disappointing considering how impressive he was when winning at Leopardstown on his return to action. It is hard to find an obvious excuse but if he bounced back to form, he would be right in the mix.
However, I prefer the claims of his stablemate U S NAVY FLAG who was fifth in the French Guineas last time. He was drawn wide on that occasion so used up plenty of petrol early on to bag the lead and he also stumbled coming down the hill. Despite that, he still wasn’t far and given a more favourable trip he would have been bang there. He seems to relish fast ground which he is likely to get on Saturday and given his proven record in Group 1 company, at the prices, I prefer him to the favourite Elarqam.
The dark horse in the field could be Zihba who was purchased by Al Shaqab racing this week. Fozzy Stack’s colt is the only unbeaten colt in the field and extended his winning run to three when landing the Group 3 Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown a couple of weeks ago. In terms of form, it is hard to get an accurate gauge on his ability but having only had the three starts, he could be open to any amount of improvement.
One final one to mention is Symbolization who has done little wrong in his four starts to date. He got his head in front for the second time at Newmarket last time but that was only a handicap so he will need to step forward to be competitive in this sort of grade. However, with the stable’s Masar having run well in the Guineas at Newmarket they should have a fair idea as to where they stand and he could run better than his current odds suggest.
Advice
U S NAVY FLAG – 1pt win @ 3/1 (SkyBet, William Hill)
4.45 Curragh – Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group 2)
Aidan O’Brien has only once won this race once since 2004 when it was established. However, HYDRANGEA can add a second win here.
Last season she signed off in style at Ascot, beating Bateel by 2 lengths, and had claimed a brace of Group 1 victories prior.
Goldrush seems the only obvious challenger to the selection after achieving an awful lot in such a short space of time last year, but she looks up against it nonetheless.
Making Light is a useful filly in her own right after some excellent form at Leopardstown and Naas. However, this is a big step up and she will have to produce a career-best to get involved.
It’s hard to make a case for the other runners, Nivvo, Opal Tiara and Xenobia, as the first three in the betting look to be a class above.
Advice
HYDRANGEA – 2pts win @ SP
5.30 Goodwood – European Breeders’ Fund Fillies’ Novice Stakes (MW)
For a Class 5 Novice event, this looks a serious contest, with a fair few fillies looking capable of very decent form and ratings in the 90’s.
The highest rated filly (on official ratings anyway) is the Paul Cole-trained Musical Art, who has been an also-ran in Group contests on her last four starts after a winning debut run at Newbury. This will be her first run in a handicap so we are yet to see whether a mark of 97 may be lenient or may be harsh, but on the way she’s run in said Group contests, both here and in France, it does look very harsh. Combine this with a draw in 13 and 210 days off the track and I think she’s one worth opposing.
At the other end of the experience scale is the maiden winner, Beauty Filly, from the stable of the in-form William Haggas. She was an impressive winner at Yarmouth under Ryan Moore and with just the one run under her belt, surely has plenty more to come. She’s a half-sister to the very useful Ashadihan and Mythical Madness, so there’s plenty in her pedigree, while she’s certainly in good hands. However, 247 days off means she’ll have to be razor sharp in this hot contest, while the form of the win at Yarmouth isn’t exactly bombproof, so she’s likely to be a shorter price than she should be.
The Cheveley Park filly, Homeopathic, was a winner on her debut last season and was a little unlucky not to follow it up on her reappearance this year at Wolverhampton – she was hampered in second behind John Gosden’s Derrymore who went off favourite in the Listed Height of Fashion Stakes at this track on Thursday before disappointing. A half-sister to the useful Diagnostic with a nice Cheveley Park pedigree, you would hope that she’d be up to a contest like this and Sir Michael Stoute isn’t one to tilt at windmills, so this filly should certainly be on your shortlists.
However, the filly I really like here is the Richard Hannon-trained NATURAL, who has been highly-tried both in her two-year-old season in Group and Listed contests and on her first run this season, where she was seventh of 11 in the Fred Darling. Dropped back to novice company and six furlongs at Lingfield, she was again handed a poor draw, but broke fast to lead and was only worn down in the final strides by a filly she had to give a barrow-load of weight to. This return to seven furlongs on a tight track and on good ground should be perfect for this Kodiac filly and she also has a decent draw in 6, giving her options in terms of position. She’s match fit and surely must go well.
As for those who don’t carry a penalty for winning, Bella Regazza is an interesting contender for Hughie Morrison after making a promising debut in a decent race at Newbury. She looked as if she’d come on plenty for that run and could be a player here, even if she’ll have to improve a lot to challenge the likes of the 90-rated fillies.
Advice
NATURAL – 1pt win @ 3/1 (bet365)
