Post by beakers2 on May 31, 2018 17:15:47 GMT
2.00 Epsom – The Investec Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (Plus Race)
Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston have shared the last four renewals between them and their representatives this year look closely matched on their Newbury run a fortnight ago. Hannon’s It’s The Only Way finished fourth to The Irish Rover having set a strong pace, paying the price for it in the final furlong and weakening to finish a nose behind Johnston’s MARIE’S DIAMOND, who was just touched off for second having tried to go with Aidan O’Brien’s impressive winner. Both were fair efforts in a valuable conditions race but it is the Middleham Park-owned runner that gets the vote given he has already shown he can handle cut in the ground. He stayed on well to land a five furlong novice event on heavy going at Leicester on his racecourse debut and although he got tired late on last time, his pedigree suggests that this six furlong trip, and further in time, should be well within his compass. With Champion Jockey Silvestre De Sousa once again in the saddle, representing a yard that have won three of the last seven renewals, he has a lot going for him and should take all the beating.
Mick Channon is the only trainer to break the Hannon/Johnston dominance in the last seven years and has a couple of chances to upset the applecart this year. Channon has been in flying form this year, especially with juveniles, and his best chance here looks to come in the shape of Cotubanama. The daughter of Heeraat is another proven on an easy surface having scored in a heavy-ground Salisbury conditions race on her penultimate start. She found the Listed Marygate Fillies’ Stakes at York too hot a fortnight ago but wasn’t disgraced in a close-up sixth. She has a fair amount of speed in her pedigree but the step up to six furlongs shouldn’t be a problem so she could have a part to play if coping with taking on the boys. The 5lb sex allowance could come in very handy.
Stablemate Jungle Inthebungle has a fair bit more to prove having been beaten as a short-priced favourite at Kempton last time. Both of his races to date have come on the all-weather so the ground is a big question mark but more worryingly, jockey Charles Bishop though he would be ‘far better on a more conventional track’ and Epsom by no means fits that bill!
The two runners in the line-up without a win to their name get in without a 5lb penalty but both could get involved with some already fair form to their name. True Belief was a well-supported favourite when fourth at York a fortnight ago, shaping nicely despite showing obvious signs of greenness. The Excelebration colt started quite sluggishly but stayed on into the contest before tiring late on. He will have learned a lot from that experience but will need another step up here.
Mendoza looks more capable of making his mark having looked well clued up for his debut at Newbury’s Locking meeting. He stayed on well to snatch third that day and is bred to be a precocious two-year-old being by Zebedee out of a Listed-placed juvenile. Brian Meehan seems to have his string in good nick at the moment and given they tend to come on for the run, he could well have a bigger effort in him.
Of the remainder, Cosmic Law will have to prove himself on a much softer surface than he has encountered before, especially considering he is by No Nay Never out of a US dirt winner while Usain Boat won a shade cosily at Newmarket last time but that form has been let down by the runner-up since and he seems to have been deserted in favour of the selection by Silvestre De Sousa, for all that Frankie Dettori is a more than capable substitute.
Advice
MARIE’S DIAMOND – 2pts win @ 3/1 (General)
2.35 Epsom – The Investec Click & Invest Mile Handicap Stakes.
Truth being told, this isn’t a particularly strong contest so a chance is taken on KING’S PAVILION. The five-year-old is typically well-raced for an ex Mark Johnston inmate and would likely be a lot shorter in the betting if he was representing a more fashionable handler than Jason Ward. He wasn’t disgraced when sixth behind the re-opposing High Acclaim in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on his seasonal bow and followed that up with a decent third in the Ripon Silver Bowl. His latest effort was again respectable when not beaten far in eighth in the Hunt Cup at Wetherby but the handicapper has given him a bit more leeway now, dropping him 1lb ahead of this. As one of only two course winners in this field, Medburn Dream being the other, having scored at the Derby Festival a couple of years ago, we know he can handle the idiosyncrasies of the Epsom track and with conditions in his favour, he could well have a bigger part to play than some might think.
His former stablemate Masham Star could well be a danger having returned to form from out of the blue last time. We all know that Johnston has a penchant for winners at this meeting so all of his runners warrant that extra bit of respect. However, even with that taken into account, his price does look rather skinny given he has never won on going with soft in the description and this trip, with the ground taken into account, probably stretches him to the max.
Therefore, Donncha looks the biggest threat to the selection, even though he has gone almost three years without getting his head in front. He is at least down to 1lb below that last winning mark and while he has been fancied to run well in some big handicaps in the meantime, and often gives his running, he has the tendency to be able to find a few too good. He has the ability to land a race of this nature, especially given the weaker look to this year’s renewal, and conditions should be right up his alley but it is his resolve that worries me. Enough to see him passed over once more.
Advice
KING’S PAVILION – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Boylesports) (3 places – 1/5 odds)
3.10 Epsom – The Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1)
This year’s renewal of the Coronation Cup has a small but select field of six runners as a strong favourite dominates the betting for the race.
The market leader is the John Gosden-trained Cracksman who has developed into a high-class colt and looks to have even more to offer this year. The son of Frankel has valuable experience of Epsom from his three-year-old campaign, winning the Derby Trial before going on to finish a close third in the Classic. He then finished runner-up in the Irish equivalent, only failing to overhaul the subsequent St Leger winner Capri by a neck. That run was the last time that Cracksman has suffered defeat as he has been successful in his four races since, winning all of them in fine style. He added two Group 2s, the Great Voltigeur at York and Prix Neil at Chantilly, which led to him being considered for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. However, connections always had the view that Cracksman would be better as a four-year-old and bypassed France in favour of the Champion Stakes at Ascot. The colt put up an impressive display to gain his first Group 1 victory, having far too much for his rivals on the soft ground to win by seven lengths. He has returned to training this year and picked up where he left off with further top level success in Prix Ganay at Longchamp, winning by four lengths. He is one of the most exciting horses in training and will be difficult to beat in the Coronation Cup, with the unique track and softer conditions no problem for the four-year-old.
The main challenge to the favourite could from Godolphin’s Hawkbill, who gained the second Group 1 win of his career in the Dubai Sheema Classic when last seen in March. He beat a strong field by three lengths that day and there could be more to come from the five-year-old trained by Charlie Appleby. His other victory at the highest level came in the 2016 Eclipse at Sandown, following on from success at Royal Ascot in the Tercentenary Stakes. Both of those performances came on soft ground so the rain at Epsom will have been in his favour. He also has previous experience of the course having finished third in last year’s Coronation Cup behind Highland Reel. However, it will be tough to go two places better this time around with Cracksman in the line-up.
In sixth place in the 2017 Coronation Cup was Idaho and he returns for another shot at the prize. A brother to Highland Reel, he hasn’t managed to match the success of his sibling so far for Aidan O’Brien. As a three-year-old the son of Galileo finished third in the Derby and was then runner-up in the Irish equivalent, before he went on to Group 2 success in the Great Voltigeur. His sole success as a four-year-old came in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, but he went on to finish a creditable third back at the same course in the King George and then competed in top international races in search of a first Group 1 win. A victory at the highest level will be the aim for Idaho after he made a winning start to the season stepped up in trip for the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester’s May Festival. Unfortunately for him though, the ground conditions have gone against him at Epsom as his four career wins have all been on a quicker surface (three on good-to-firm).
O’Brien also saddles Yucatan in the race, who finished runner-up in the 2016 Racing Post Trophy but will need to improve at his first attempt at a mile and a half. An intriguing contender is the German raider Windstoss who won the Deutsches Derby last year for trainer Markus Klug. That success came on soft ground and he gained another Group 1 to end 2017 when he also had similar conditions. The rain will have been excellent news for the four-year-old and it could help him to outrun his odds in the Coronation Cup. The final of the six runners in the line-up is the Sylvester Kirk-trained Salouen, who looks up against it here returned to Group 1 level.
Advice
No bet
3.45 Epsom – The Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap.
Twelve months ago, this race went the way of Not So Sleepy and Hughie Morrison’s six-year-old bids to follow up this afternoon. It is probably fair to say that he failed to repeat that form on his next five runs but there were signs of a return to form at Chester last time. He clearly enjoys the idiosyncrasies of Chester and Epsom and back on his last winning mark, he is respected.
Dark Red finished in front of Not So Sleepy at Chester and continues to hold his form well despite often racing towards the head of the weights. He carries top weight again here but he does have solid course form to call upon and perhaps more importantly considering the conditions he is likely to encounter, he handles soft ground. Ryan Moore, who rode him at Chester gets back onboard and whilst he ticks plenty of boxes, I can’t help but think the handicapper probably has his measure at present.
A horse I have been keeping an eye on is Brorocco, who was an impressive winner at Newbury last September before finishing fifth in the Cambridgeshire just seven days later. He has run once this term, finishing seventh at Newmarket but he seemed to find everything happening a little quickly for him on fast ground and was looked after. I think he can prove better than a mark of 93 by the end of the season and having won around here in the past, he would have to be high on any shortlist. However, he seems to have been kept away from soft ground in his career to date so he will probably find conditions too testing on Friday.
A strong piece of form worth considering is the handicap run over course and distance in April, in which Ajman King and Another Touch finished first and third respectively. The winner looked a colt of some potential as he swept by his rivals and Roger Varian’s charge has now won each of his last three starts. A 5lb rise will make life a little more difficult for him but the form has been boosted with the fifth horse winning since and he looks the right favourite in my opinion.
In truth, the only thing I don’t like about him is his price and with that in mind, I am going to side with BANDITRY. Ian Williams’ six-year-old is a smart dual-purpose performer, who since returning to the flat, finished fourth in a valuable Newmarket handicap (ahead of Brorocco) before bumping into the progressive Thundering Blue at York last time. He was three lengths clear of the third on the latter occasion and although he has been edged up another 3lb by the handicapper, the weight of support for him that day suggests connections expected a big run. He has a course and distance victory to his name and although the official description was good to soft, the ground was pretty testing when he won at Newmarket last summer. The Ian Williams stable continues to enjoy a fine run of form and I think this consistent performer offers a viable alternative to the favourite in what looks an open race.
Advice
BANDITRY – 0.5pt e/w @ 8/1 (Sky Bet) (4 places – 1/5 odds)
4.30 Epsom – The Investec Oaks (Group 1)
The second fillies’ Classic of the season has attracted just the nine runners and whilst the field is missing a couple of potential top-class performers such as Lah Ti Dar and Magical through injury, there are still some quality fillies in the field.
On form alone, the standout performer looks to be the current favourite Wild Illusion, whose victory in last season’s Prix Marcel Boussac makes her the only previous Group 1 winner in the lineup. She was sent straight to the 1000 Guineas without a prep run this spring and she ran with plenty of credit, finishing fourth to the surprise winner Billesdon Brook. She shaped like a filly in need of a step up in trip on that occasion, looking a little out-paced when the tempo quickened before staying on again in the closing stages of the race. Her dam was a winner over 2m so I don’t think the step up to 1m4f should be any problem and if he she produces her very best form, she will take some beating here.
However, there are several lightly-raced fillies in the field, who in truth we probably haven’t seen the best of yet so it could be worth taking a close look at the opposition.
Aidan O’Brien has trained six winners of the Oaks and he saddles five of the nine runners as he bids to win the race for a seventh time. On jockey bookings, Magic Wand looks to be the first-string and she comes here on the back of an impressive success in the Cheshire Oaks. She made all on that occasion and although it is fair to say she had the run of the race out in front, she showed a smart turn of foot to put the race to bed. It is hard to say how she will handle conditions as she has been beaten on both of her runs on soft ground but her latest run was clearly much better than what she has produced in the past.
Her stablemate Forever Together chased her home that day and having encountering trouble in running, her performance can be marked up. I think it would be a stretch to say she would have beaten Magic Wand but I think she would have finished a good deal closer than the three and a half lengths she was beaten at the line. Her full-sister was fourth in the Irish Oaks and although this filly looks open to plenty of improvement, this could just come a little too soon in her development.
Another unexposed filly is Flattering who will be partnered by last year’s Derby-winning jockey Padraig Beggy. She is a difficult filly to assess as she has been beaten on both starts on fast ground, most recently in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Her standout piece of form was on soft ground, where she won a maiden by ten lengths and although she could be a much better filly with cut in the ground, the percentage call is to leave her alone here.
To be honest, of the Ballydoyle quintet, the one I like the most is BYE BYE BABY, who having had eight runs, is the most experienced filly in the field. It took her four runs to get off the mark but in doing so, she got the better of Altyn Orda, who subsequently won the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes and finished fifth in the 1000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien’s filly followed up in Listed company on soft ground next time before possibly finding 7f too sharp in the Killavullan Stakes. I am happy to put a line through her below-par run at Navan in April as a lot of the stable’s horses have improved significantly for their first run of the season and she duly did the same, winning the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes in taking fashion a couple of weeks ago. She looks a strong stayer at 1m2f on soft ground and with the ground likely to be testing on Friday, I think she has strong each-way claims.
Of the remainder of the field, William Haggas is not a trainer who runs horses in Classics for the sake of it, so his filly Give And Take has to be respected. She produced her best performance to date to win the Musidora last time but I’m not sure that form is overly strong and I would have a doubt about her staying on soft ground.
The final filly to mention is Perfect Clarity who won the Lingfield Oaks Trial last time, getting the better of Ralph Beckett’s Cecchini. Clive Cox’s filly is now unbeaten in two starts and to be honest, if the race were on good ground, she would be pretty high on my list. However, I don’t think the ground has come in her favour here and I would be surprised were she able to win in such testing conditions.
Advice
BYE BYE BABY – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Sky Bet) (4 places – 1/5 odds)
5.15 Epsom – The Investec Surrey Stakes (Listed Race)
The John Gosden-trained King’s Shield sets the standard for this Listed contest having finished sixth in the French 2,000 Guineas on his latest run. The son of Scat Daddy had won his first two starts on the all-weather, successful on his only two-year-old start at Newcastle before making a winning reappearance in a conditions race at Kempton. He then contested the class 2 Esher Cup at Sandown on good-to-soft ground where he was third behind Merlin Magic, who has since finished fourth in the Dante. The colt would go on to take his chance in the French 2,000 Guineas and he put up a good effort to finish mid-field. Although King’s Shield is now dropped in grade, the ground looks to have gone against him for Friday.
The most lightly-raced contender in the line-up is Godolphin’s AURUM who arrives at Epsom having only had the two career starts so far. Both of his runs have come this year and he made a successful debut at Newmarket’s Craven meeting in April. He saw off his rivals well that day, winning by two and three quarter lengths on the good-to-soft ground. The son of Exceed And Excel was then stepped straight up to Listed level back at the same course a month later for the King Charles II Stakes. Faced with quicker conditions this time around, he put up a creditable performance to finish third to John Gosden’s Purser as he was only beaten two and a half lengths. There should be more to come from AURUM on his third run and he can continue his progress to land the Surrey Stakes.
Another who is open to improvement is Tadbir who represents trainer Brian Meehan. He raced once as a juvenile where he was well-supported but finished fifth on the turf over five furlongs at Lingfield. The son of Kodiac was then gelded before the start of his three-year-old campaign and he got off the mark on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford. Also tried in a hood, he saw off his rival from the front that day over six furlongs. The colt was returned to the same course and upped a furlong in trip for his latest run. The same positive tactics were employed and the extra distance was no problem, but he got caught close home by John Gosden’s Mr Marrakech. However, Tadbir is now up against similarly lightly-raced rivals on Friday returned to turf in this Listed race.
The other three horses in the contest have had more racecourse experience and could find it difficult against their less-exposed rivals. Arrogant looks likely to give his running again for trainer Jose Santos with the softer conditions to suit, but he only has the one maiden victory to his name so far from nine runs. A pair of Mark Johnston-trained geldings, Lake Volta and Rufus King, complete the line-up. They have typically been kept busy by the trainer with the former having had twelve runs and the latter thirteen. Lake Volta’s best performance on turf came on good-to-soft ground when finishing runner-up to Kevin Ryan’s Savalas in a conditions race at Hamilton last month. However, he will need to find more back up in trip at Epsom. Rufus King won three times as a juvenile, including a class 2 nursery at Newmarket on his final start of 2017. He would have preferred better ground at Epsom though and will need to improve on his three starts so far this year.
Advice
AURUM – 1pt win @ 11/4 (General)
5.50 Epsom – The Investec Zebra Handicap.
Top of the weights for this competitive handicap is Accession who represents the in-form trainer Charlie Fellowes. He showed that he retains his ability as a nine-year-old on his seasonal reappearance when finishing third in a class 2 at Newmarket in April, which came on good-to-soft ground. The rain there has been at Epsom will be in his favour as he goes well with cut in the ground, as there was for his most recent win at Newmarket last summer. He put up a good effort that day to win the class 2 by two and a quarter lengths and he is only 4lb in the weights now. However, he may find it difficult to defy top-weight.
Accession’s third at Newmarket in April could be a key bit of form for Friday as in behind him in sixth and eighth were Taurean Star and Juanito Chico who reoppose on Friday. The former, trained by Ralph Beckett, did not get a clear run having his first run of 2018 and has since gone on to land a class 2 at Goodwood. That performance came on good-to-soft ground but he had dropped to below his last winning mark, so improvement will be needed now to follow up. From the same Goodwood race, Right Action also heads to Epsom for Richard Fahey having suffered bad luck in running in that contest. The four-year-old was travelling strongly but wasn’t able to challenge having got stuck behind horses. Prior to that he had won two handicaps on easy ground switched back to turf. He could run well off his career high mark but has a tough draw to overcome. Juanito Chico has valuable previous experience of the course having won a class 2 on this card last year for William Jarvis. He has been running creditably since then, but is now 10lb higher than his win in 2017.
Richard Fahey saddles two in the race and Clubbable arrives at Epsom looking to make it a hat-trick of wins. Things clicked on his final start as a juvenile last year at Leicester in October as she finally got the mark having been placed on six occasions. She gained another success on her first start of 2018 with victory in a typically competitive York handicap. Stepped back up to seven furlongs, the filly came home strongly to win the class 3 contest by a neck. Now that Clubbable has found her winning touch she can made a bold bid for her third consecutive win on Friday, but will need to step up again on her York performance.
Another trainer with two in the race is David Elsworth who’s Ripp Orf is currently the market leader. The four-year-old has been very consistent throughout his career, winning twice and finishing runner-up six times from ten career starts. He has mainly been campaigned on the all-weather but has enjoyed the switch to turf this year, landing the valuable Victoria Cup at Ascot before finishing a good second to the John Gosden-trained Pouvoir Magique in a class 2 at Newbury when last seen. Ripp Orf can go close again, but preference is for stablemate GALLOWAY HILLS at the bottom of the weights. The three-year-old has only had the seven career starts to date and, similarly to Ripp Orf, has shown strong form on turf this year having previously been campaigned on the all-weather. On his first start of the season he was a good second to Richard Fahey’s Maybride in a class 2 at Newmarket and then finished third in a decent-looking event back at the same course, won by Godolphin’s Tribal Quest. On both occasions he finished well over the six furlongs so the step up in trip looks like it will suit. There should be more to come from GALLOWAY HILLS and he can land this handicap off bottom weight.
Advice
GALLOWAY HILLS – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power & Sky Bet) (4 places – 1/5 odds)
Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston have shared the last four renewals between them and their representatives this year look closely matched on their Newbury run a fortnight ago. Hannon’s It’s The Only Way finished fourth to The Irish Rover having set a strong pace, paying the price for it in the final furlong and weakening to finish a nose behind Johnston’s MARIE’S DIAMOND, who was just touched off for second having tried to go with Aidan O’Brien’s impressive winner. Both were fair efforts in a valuable conditions race but it is the Middleham Park-owned runner that gets the vote given he has already shown he can handle cut in the ground. He stayed on well to land a five furlong novice event on heavy going at Leicester on his racecourse debut and although he got tired late on last time, his pedigree suggests that this six furlong trip, and further in time, should be well within his compass. With Champion Jockey Silvestre De Sousa once again in the saddle, representing a yard that have won three of the last seven renewals, he has a lot going for him and should take all the beating.
Mick Channon is the only trainer to break the Hannon/Johnston dominance in the last seven years and has a couple of chances to upset the applecart this year. Channon has been in flying form this year, especially with juveniles, and his best chance here looks to come in the shape of Cotubanama. The daughter of Heeraat is another proven on an easy surface having scored in a heavy-ground Salisbury conditions race on her penultimate start. She found the Listed Marygate Fillies’ Stakes at York too hot a fortnight ago but wasn’t disgraced in a close-up sixth. She has a fair amount of speed in her pedigree but the step up to six furlongs shouldn’t be a problem so she could have a part to play if coping with taking on the boys. The 5lb sex allowance could come in very handy.
Stablemate Jungle Inthebungle has a fair bit more to prove having been beaten as a short-priced favourite at Kempton last time. Both of his races to date have come on the all-weather so the ground is a big question mark but more worryingly, jockey Charles Bishop though he would be ‘far better on a more conventional track’ and Epsom by no means fits that bill!
The two runners in the line-up without a win to their name get in without a 5lb penalty but both could get involved with some already fair form to their name. True Belief was a well-supported favourite when fourth at York a fortnight ago, shaping nicely despite showing obvious signs of greenness. The Excelebration colt started quite sluggishly but stayed on into the contest before tiring late on. He will have learned a lot from that experience but will need another step up here.
Mendoza looks more capable of making his mark having looked well clued up for his debut at Newbury’s Locking meeting. He stayed on well to snatch third that day and is bred to be a precocious two-year-old being by Zebedee out of a Listed-placed juvenile. Brian Meehan seems to have his string in good nick at the moment and given they tend to come on for the run, he could well have a bigger effort in him.
Of the remainder, Cosmic Law will have to prove himself on a much softer surface than he has encountered before, especially considering he is by No Nay Never out of a US dirt winner while Usain Boat won a shade cosily at Newmarket last time but that form has been let down by the runner-up since and he seems to have been deserted in favour of the selection by Silvestre De Sousa, for all that Frankie Dettori is a more than capable substitute.
Advice
MARIE’S DIAMOND – 2pts win @ 3/1 (General)
2.35 Epsom – The Investec Click & Invest Mile Handicap Stakes.
Truth being told, this isn’t a particularly strong contest so a chance is taken on KING’S PAVILION. The five-year-old is typically well-raced for an ex Mark Johnston inmate and would likely be a lot shorter in the betting if he was representing a more fashionable handler than Jason Ward. He wasn’t disgraced when sixth behind the re-opposing High Acclaim in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on his seasonal bow and followed that up with a decent third in the Ripon Silver Bowl. His latest effort was again respectable when not beaten far in eighth in the Hunt Cup at Wetherby but the handicapper has given him a bit more leeway now, dropping him 1lb ahead of this. As one of only two course winners in this field, Medburn Dream being the other, having scored at the Derby Festival a couple of years ago, we know he can handle the idiosyncrasies of the Epsom track and with conditions in his favour, he could well have a bigger part to play than some might think.
His former stablemate Masham Star could well be a danger having returned to form from out of the blue last time. We all know that Johnston has a penchant for winners at this meeting so all of his runners warrant that extra bit of respect. However, even with that taken into account, his price does look rather skinny given he has never won on going with soft in the description and this trip, with the ground taken into account, probably stretches him to the max.
Therefore, Donncha looks the biggest threat to the selection, even though he has gone almost three years without getting his head in front. He is at least down to 1lb below that last winning mark and while he has been fancied to run well in some big handicaps in the meantime, and often gives his running, he has the tendency to be able to find a few too good. He has the ability to land a race of this nature, especially given the weaker look to this year’s renewal, and conditions should be right up his alley but it is his resolve that worries me. Enough to see him passed over once more.
Advice
KING’S PAVILION – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Boylesports) (3 places – 1/5 odds)
3.10 Epsom – The Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1)
This year’s renewal of the Coronation Cup has a small but select field of six runners as a strong favourite dominates the betting for the race.
The market leader is the John Gosden-trained Cracksman who has developed into a high-class colt and looks to have even more to offer this year. The son of Frankel has valuable experience of Epsom from his three-year-old campaign, winning the Derby Trial before going on to finish a close third in the Classic. He then finished runner-up in the Irish equivalent, only failing to overhaul the subsequent St Leger winner Capri by a neck. That run was the last time that Cracksman has suffered defeat as he has been successful in his four races since, winning all of them in fine style. He added two Group 2s, the Great Voltigeur at York and Prix Neil at Chantilly, which led to him being considered for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. However, connections always had the view that Cracksman would be better as a four-year-old and bypassed France in favour of the Champion Stakes at Ascot. The colt put up an impressive display to gain his first Group 1 victory, having far too much for his rivals on the soft ground to win by seven lengths. He has returned to training this year and picked up where he left off with further top level success in Prix Ganay at Longchamp, winning by four lengths. He is one of the most exciting horses in training and will be difficult to beat in the Coronation Cup, with the unique track and softer conditions no problem for the four-year-old.
The main challenge to the favourite could from Godolphin’s Hawkbill, who gained the second Group 1 win of his career in the Dubai Sheema Classic when last seen in March. He beat a strong field by three lengths that day and there could be more to come from the five-year-old trained by Charlie Appleby. His other victory at the highest level came in the 2016 Eclipse at Sandown, following on from success at Royal Ascot in the Tercentenary Stakes. Both of those performances came on soft ground so the rain at Epsom will have been in his favour. He also has previous experience of the course having finished third in last year’s Coronation Cup behind Highland Reel. However, it will be tough to go two places better this time around with Cracksman in the line-up.
In sixth place in the 2017 Coronation Cup was Idaho and he returns for another shot at the prize. A brother to Highland Reel, he hasn’t managed to match the success of his sibling so far for Aidan O’Brien. As a three-year-old the son of Galileo finished third in the Derby and was then runner-up in the Irish equivalent, before he went on to Group 2 success in the Great Voltigeur. His sole success as a four-year-old came in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, but he went on to finish a creditable third back at the same course in the King George and then competed in top international races in search of a first Group 1 win. A victory at the highest level will be the aim for Idaho after he made a winning start to the season stepped up in trip for the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester’s May Festival. Unfortunately for him though, the ground conditions have gone against him at Epsom as his four career wins have all been on a quicker surface (three on good-to-firm).
O’Brien also saddles Yucatan in the race, who finished runner-up in the 2016 Racing Post Trophy but will need to improve at his first attempt at a mile and a half. An intriguing contender is the German raider Windstoss who won the Deutsches Derby last year for trainer Markus Klug. That success came on soft ground and he gained another Group 1 to end 2017 when he also had similar conditions. The rain will have been excellent news for the four-year-old and it could help him to outrun his odds in the Coronation Cup. The final of the six runners in the line-up is the Sylvester Kirk-trained Salouen, who looks up against it here returned to Group 1 level.
Advice
No bet
3.45 Epsom – The Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap.
Twelve months ago, this race went the way of Not So Sleepy and Hughie Morrison’s six-year-old bids to follow up this afternoon. It is probably fair to say that he failed to repeat that form on his next five runs but there were signs of a return to form at Chester last time. He clearly enjoys the idiosyncrasies of Chester and Epsom and back on his last winning mark, he is respected.
Dark Red finished in front of Not So Sleepy at Chester and continues to hold his form well despite often racing towards the head of the weights. He carries top weight again here but he does have solid course form to call upon and perhaps more importantly considering the conditions he is likely to encounter, he handles soft ground. Ryan Moore, who rode him at Chester gets back onboard and whilst he ticks plenty of boxes, I can’t help but think the handicapper probably has his measure at present.
A horse I have been keeping an eye on is Brorocco, who was an impressive winner at Newbury last September before finishing fifth in the Cambridgeshire just seven days later. He has run once this term, finishing seventh at Newmarket but he seemed to find everything happening a little quickly for him on fast ground and was looked after. I think he can prove better than a mark of 93 by the end of the season and having won around here in the past, he would have to be high on any shortlist. However, he seems to have been kept away from soft ground in his career to date so he will probably find conditions too testing on Friday.
A strong piece of form worth considering is the handicap run over course and distance in April, in which Ajman King and Another Touch finished first and third respectively. The winner looked a colt of some potential as he swept by his rivals and Roger Varian’s charge has now won each of his last three starts. A 5lb rise will make life a little more difficult for him but the form has been boosted with the fifth horse winning since and he looks the right favourite in my opinion.
In truth, the only thing I don’t like about him is his price and with that in mind, I am going to side with BANDITRY. Ian Williams’ six-year-old is a smart dual-purpose performer, who since returning to the flat, finished fourth in a valuable Newmarket handicap (ahead of Brorocco) before bumping into the progressive Thundering Blue at York last time. He was three lengths clear of the third on the latter occasion and although he has been edged up another 3lb by the handicapper, the weight of support for him that day suggests connections expected a big run. He has a course and distance victory to his name and although the official description was good to soft, the ground was pretty testing when he won at Newmarket last summer. The Ian Williams stable continues to enjoy a fine run of form and I think this consistent performer offers a viable alternative to the favourite in what looks an open race.
Advice
BANDITRY – 0.5pt e/w @ 8/1 (Sky Bet) (4 places – 1/5 odds)
4.30 Epsom – The Investec Oaks (Group 1)
The second fillies’ Classic of the season has attracted just the nine runners and whilst the field is missing a couple of potential top-class performers such as Lah Ti Dar and Magical through injury, there are still some quality fillies in the field.
On form alone, the standout performer looks to be the current favourite Wild Illusion, whose victory in last season’s Prix Marcel Boussac makes her the only previous Group 1 winner in the lineup. She was sent straight to the 1000 Guineas without a prep run this spring and she ran with plenty of credit, finishing fourth to the surprise winner Billesdon Brook. She shaped like a filly in need of a step up in trip on that occasion, looking a little out-paced when the tempo quickened before staying on again in the closing stages of the race. Her dam was a winner over 2m so I don’t think the step up to 1m4f should be any problem and if he she produces her very best form, she will take some beating here.
However, there are several lightly-raced fillies in the field, who in truth we probably haven’t seen the best of yet so it could be worth taking a close look at the opposition.
Aidan O’Brien has trained six winners of the Oaks and he saddles five of the nine runners as he bids to win the race for a seventh time. On jockey bookings, Magic Wand looks to be the first-string and she comes here on the back of an impressive success in the Cheshire Oaks. She made all on that occasion and although it is fair to say she had the run of the race out in front, she showed a smart turn of foot to put the race to bed. It is hard to say how she will handle conditions as she has been beaten on both of her runs on soft ground but her latest run was clearly much better than what she has produced in the past.
Her stablemate Forever Together chased her home that day and having encountering trouble in running, her performance can be marked up. I think it would be a stretch to say she would have beaten Magic Wand but I think she would have finished a good deal closer than the three and a half lengths she was beaten at the line. Her full-sister was fourth in the Irish Oaks and although this filly looks open to plenty of improvement, this could just come a little too soon in her development.
Another unexposed filly is Flattering who will be partnered by last year’s Derby-winning jockey Padraig Beggy. She is a difficult filly to assess as she has been beaten on both starts on fast ground, most recently in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Her standout piece of form was on soft ground, where she won a maiden by ten lengths and although she could be a much better filly with cut in the ground, the percentage call is to leave her alone here.
To be honest, of the Ballydoyle quintet, the one I like the most is BYE BYE BABY, who having had eight runs, is the most experienced filly in the field. It took her four runs to get off the mark but in doing so, she got the better of Altyn Orda, who subsequently won the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes and finished fifth in the 1000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien’s filly followed up in Listed company on soft ground next time before possibly finding 7f too sharp in the Killavullan Stakes. I am happy to put a line through her below-par run at Navan in April as a lot of the stable’s horses have improved significantly for their first run of the season and she duly did the same, winning the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes in taking fashion a couple of weeks ago. She looks a strong stayer at 1m2f on soft ground and with the ground likely to be testing on Friday, I think she has strong each-way claims.
Of the remainder of the field, William Haggas is not a trainer who runs horses in Classics for the sake of it, so his filly Give And Take has to be respected. She produced her best performance to date to win the Musidora last time but I’m not sure that form is overly strong and I would have a doubt about her staying on soft ground.
The final filly to mention is Perfect Clarity who won the Lingfield Oaks Trial last time, getting the better of Ralph Beckett’s Cecchini. Clive Cox’s filly is now unbeaten in two starts and to be honest, if the race were on good ground, she would be pretty high on my list. However, I don’t think the ground has come in her favour here and I would be surprised were she able to win in such testing conditions.
Advice
BYE BYE BABY – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Sky Bet) (4 places – 1/5 odds)
5.15 Epsom – The Investec Surrey Stakes (Listed Race)
The John Gosden-trained King’s Shield sets the standard for this Listed contest having finished sixth in the French 2,000 Guineas on his latest run. The son of Scat Daddy had won his first two starts on the all-weather, successful on his only two-year-old start at Newcastle before making a winning reappearance in a conditions race at Kempton. He then contested the class 2 Esher Cup at Sandown on good-to-soft ground where he was third behind Merlin Magic, who has since finished fourth in the Dante. The colt would go on to take his chance in the French 2,000 Guineas and he put up a good effort to finish mid-field. Although King’s Shield is now dropped in grade, the ground looks to have gone against him for Friday.
The most lightly-raced contender in the line-up is Godolphin’s AURUM who arrives at Epsom having only had the two career starts so far. Both of his runs have come this year and he made a successful debut at Newmarket’s Craven meeting in April. He saw off his rivals well that day, winning by two and three quarter lengths on the good-to-soft ground. The son of Exceed And Excel was then stepped straight up to Listed level back at the same course a month later for the King Charles II Stakes. Faced with quicker conditions this time around, he put up a creditable performance to finish third to John Gosden’s Purser as he was only beaten two and a half lengths. There should be more to come from AURUM on his third run and he can continue his progress to land the Surrey Stakes.
Another who is open to improvement is Tadbir who represents trainer Brian Meehan. He raced once as a juvenile where he was well-supported but finished fifth on the turf over five furlongs at Lingfield. The son of Kodiac was then gelded before the start of his three-year-old campaign and he got off the mark on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford. Also tried in a hood, he saw off his rival from the front that day over six furlongs. The colt was returned to the same course and upped a furlong in trip for his latest run. The same positive tactics were employed and the extra distance was no problem, but he got caught close home by John Gosden’s Mr Marrakech. However, Tadbir is now up against similarly lightly-raced rivals on Friday returned to turf in this Listed race.
The other three horses in the contest have had more racecourse experience and could find it difficult against their less-exposed rivals. Arrogant looks likely to give his running again for trainer Jose Santos with the softer conditions to suit, but he only has the one maiden victory to his name so far from nine runs. A pair of Mark Johnston-trained geldings, Lake Volta and Rufus King, complete the line-up. They have typically been kept busy by the trainer with the former having had twelve runs and the latter thirteen. Lake Volta’s best performance on turf came on good-to-soft ground when finishing runner-up to Kevin Ryan’s Savalas in a conditions race at Hamilton last month. However, he will need to find more back up in trip at Epsom. Rufus King won three times as a juvenile, including a class 2 nursery at Newmarket on his final start of 2017. He would have preferred better ground at Epsom though and will need to improve on his three starts so far this year.
Advice
AURUM – 1pt win @ 11/4 (General)
5.50 Epsom – The Investec Zebra Handicap.
Top of the weights for this competitive handicap is Accession who represents the in-form trainer Charlie Fellowes. He showed that he retains his ability as a nine-year-old on his seasonal reappearance when finishing third in a class 2 at Newmarket in April, which came on good-to-soft ground. The rain there has been at Epsom will be in his favour as he goes well with cut in the ground, as there was for his most recent win at Newmarket last summer. He put up a good effort that day to win the class 2 by two and a quarter lengths and he is only 4lb in the weights now. However, he may find it difficult to defy top-weight.
Accession’s third at Newmarket in April could be a key bit of form for Friday as in behind him in sixth and eighth were Taurean Star and Juanito Chico who reoppose on Friday. The former, trained by Ralph Beckett, did not get a clear run having his first run of 2018 and has since gone on to land a class 2 at Goodwood. That performance came on good-to-soft ground but he had dropped to below his last winning mark, so improvement will be needed now to follow up. From the same Goodwood race, Right Action also heads to Epsom for Richard Fahey having suffered bad luck in running in that contest. The four-year-old was travelling strongly but wasn’t able to challenge having got stuck behind horses. Prior to that he had won two handicaps on easy ground switched back to turf. He could run well off his career high mark but has a tough draw to overcome. Juanito Chico has valuable previous experience of the course having won a class 2 on this card last year for William Jarvis. He has been running creditably since then, but is now 10lb higher than his win in 2017.
Richard Fahey saddles two in the race and Clubbable arrives at Epsom looking to make it a hat-trick of wins. Things clicked on his final start as a juvenile last year at Leicester in October as she finally got the mark having been placed on six occasions. She gained another success on her first start of 2018 with victory in a typically competitive York handicap. Stepped back up to seven furlongs, the filly came home strongly to win the class 3 contest by a neck. Now that Clubbable has found her winning touch she can made a bold bid for her third consecutive win on Friday, but will need to step up again on her York performance.
Another trainer with two in the race is David Elsworth who’s Ripp Orf is currently the market leader. The four-year-old has been very consistent throughout his career, winning twice and finishing runner-up six times from ten career starts. He has mainly been campaigned on the all-weather but has enjoyed the switch to turf this year, landing the valuable Victoria Cup at Ascot before finishing a good second to the John Gosden-trained Pouvoir Magique in a class 2 at Newbury when last seen. Ripp Orf can go close again, but preference is for stablemate GALLOWAY HILLS at the bottom of the weights. The three-year-old has only had the seven career starts to date and, similarly to Ripp Orf, has shown strong form on turf this year having previously been campaigned on the all-weather. On his first start of the season he was a good second to Richard Fahey’s Maybride in a class 2 at Newmarket and then finished third in a decent-looking event back at the same course, won by Godolphin’s Tribal Quest. On both occasions he finished well over the six furlongs so the step up in trip looks like it will suit. There should be more to come from GALLOWAY HILLS and he can land this handicap off bottom weight.
Advice
GALLOWAY HILLS – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power & Sky Bet) (4 places – 1/5 odds)
