saturday racing lets get it on

2.00 Epsom – The Investec Private Banking Handicap Stakes.





A pretty competitive-looking opener for Derby Day where a case can be levied for the majority of the 11 to line up.



Sylvester Kirk has targeted this particular contest over the years with three of the last nine winners but his representative here, George, is running from out of the handicap and it would be surprise to see him shed his maiden tag at the ninth attempt in a race as hot as this. I’m vehemently against any horse that is ‘wrong’ at the weights which helps narrow the field down here with Westbrook Bertie, Shuhood and Corazon Espinado also running from marks higher than they have earned.




Macaque aside, although the first-time hood could help him settle better, the remaining six all look very closely matched



Another wearing a hood for the first-time is Connect, who is on somewhat of a recovery mission having failed to beat a rival on each of his starts this campaign. He holds arguably some of the strongest juvenile form in the field but sometimes horses just don’t train on as expected and even a 6lb swing in the weights doesn’t look enough for him to trouble Poet’s Prince on their latest run-in at Newbury in the London Gold Cup.






Mark Johnston’s charge was outstayed by his stablemate Communique that day but was well clear of the remainder and a 5lb rise for that effort seems fair on the face of things. That second capped a 20lb rise since the beginning of March which has seen him finish either first or second in six starts. He would be the clear form pick but for the ground, which is enough of a concern to see him passed over on this occasion for stablemate BOOK OF DREAMS.







Granted, his latest form figures aren’t particularly inspiring, but if you take into account his record on going easier than good reads two wins, one second and two fourths, he has to be taken seriously with the ground conditions as they are. Being by Dream Ahead, he may not immediately stand out as wanting this extra couple of furlongs but he is out of a talented middle distance performer in Moonbi Ridge so it should be within his compass. His demolition of the field in a valuable handicap at Musselburgh on Easter Saturday really caught my eye but unfortunately the assessor must have been taking note too as he was hit with a 10lb rise. A couple of modest efforts since have seen him come back down 5lb to just 5lb higher than when hosing up back in March. Given I can’t find much between a few of these, the 20/1 about him just looks ridiculously big and is too good an opportunity to turn down, especially from a yard renowned for success at this meeting and with arguably the best current rider of Epsom in Silvestre De Sousa in the plate.






Ship Of The Fen is another that will appreciate the cut in the ground having scored at Doncaster back in April in similar conditions. Although he only won by half a length, he did it in the manner of a horse on the up and a 6lb rise doesn’t look too harsh from the handicapper. If he continues on his steep upward curve, he can certainly get involved, especially with the conditions firmly in his favour.
Top weight Court House ran a big race when second to Old Persian in the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight ago and is a horse clearly heading in the right direction at present, However, the handicapper has hit him with a whopping 12lb rise on the back of that effort in a muddling three-runner affair and I think that may just put paid to his chances here.






Richard Fahey’s Indomeneo has more pressing claims having returned to form with a decent win at Ripon last time. He had looked to be going the wrong way since his juvenile days but a masterfully, patient ride from the Silvestre De Sousa saw him return to winning ways. A 3lb rise looks attainable but this is a pretty strong affair and he has a lot to make up with the selection, who De Sousa has opted for here, on their Musselburgh showing.





Advice






BOOK OF DREAMS – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (BetVictor & Boylesports) (3 places – 1/5 odds)







2.35 Epsom – The Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Investec) (Group 3)








This often proves a solid stepping stone for fillies aiming at the top, with the likes of Eva’s Request, Thistle Bird and Arabian Queen striking at Group 1 level after taking this in the last 10 years. Although nothing in this year’s renewal looks of that calibre as yet, it still looks a fairly competitive contest.





Three-year-olds receive a very handy weight-for-age allowance but that hasn’t always translated to success here. Arabian Queen and Epsom Icon made it back-to-back wins for the younger generation in 2015 & 2016 but they are the only 3yos to score in the last 10 years (from a fair representation).







Both of the 3yos in this year’s race line-up here with question marks and are probably best watched. Dance Diva receives weight all round and has some fair form in the book with her win in the Listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes as a juvenile together with a close-up third in the Fred Darling on her seasonal bow. However, she was well beaten when stepped up to a mile at York a fortnight ago and being by Mayson, she may not appreciate being stepped up further in trip.







Free Handicap winner Anna Nerium has more pressing claims and was a respectable seventh in the 1000 Guineas last time out. She will appreciate the step back into calmer waters here and has already struck at Group 3 level when landing the Group 3 Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes at Salisbury back in September (for which she incurs a 3lb penalty here). The trip is a bit of an unknown but she should be able to cope with it looking at her pedigree and on official ratings, she would take all the beating. I just have my nagging doubts about how good she is though and would be willing to take her on.







Therefore, SHENANIGANS is the selection. Roger Varian’s filly has been a model of consistency in her career so far, finishing out of the first three only twice from 11 starts and in the first two on each of her last six runs, and looks ready to make her mark at this sort of level on the evidence of her two runs in Listed company this year. She made a pleasing reappearance when staying on well in the Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes at Kempton and bettered that when only ¾-length adrift of Nyaleti in Goodwood’s Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes despite suffering trouble in running, form that has been franked with Mark Johnston’s charge hosing up in the German 1,000 Guineas on Sunday. Ryan Moore is a very encouraging jockey booking and she can get back to winning ways here.






Lincoln Rocks was just a neck behind her at Goodwood (with Soul Silver way back in fifth) and played second fiddle to the selection when outpointed in a valuable fillies’ handicap at the Qatar Festival last summer. That being said, she has shown some fair form at Pattern and Listed level herself since then, as well as taking a valuable fillies’ handicap herself at York’s Ebor Festival, and still rates the biggest danger, especially if allowed an easy lead at the front end.








Fellow five-year-old Wilamina also has claims if bringing her best form to the table, although she does seem to have a bit of an all or nothing profile. She looked to be a filly really going places last year when winning the Nottinghamshire Oaks and finishing second in the Group 2 Kilboy Estate Stakes but ended the campaign with a whimper, being beaten over 10 lengths on her final three starts. Her reappearance effort was a fair one when second to Wuheida in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes and history suggests that early season is the best time to catch her, so she should be able to finish in the money.







German raider Diaphora landed a Listed contest in her homeland on her latest start but I’m not sure how strong that form really is so she should be given a wide berth while Stage Name was an impressive winner of a Wolverhampton minor event back in April but this is a great deal tougher. She has clearly had her problems as a four-year-old with just the two runs under her belt so I would be a tad worried that a tongue strap has been reached for ahead of this as well.





Advice






SHENANIGANS – 1pt win @ 9/2 (BetVictor)







3.10 Epsom – The Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3)






We have two previous winners of the race in this eight-runner field, the first of which is Arod who landed this prize in 2015. Then in the care of Peter Chapple-Hyam, he subsequently won the Group 2 Summer Mile before finishing a close second to Solow in the Sussex Stakes. He spent some time in Australia last year but joined the David Simcock stable in September and seems to be refinding his form. He put in a brave front-running display to win a Listed race at Windsor last time but I suspect he will need to improve on that showing to get his head in front here.






The other returning winner is Sovereign Debt, whose victory twelve months ago was his third in quick succession. However, Ruth Carr’s nine-year-old has failed to fire in two starts so far this term and arrives here with something to prove. He finished a long way behind Arod at Windsor most recently and the percentage call is to pass on him here.






A potential pace angle in the race could be Love Dreams who made all to win a 7f handicap at Goodwood last week. Now on a mark of 106, Mark Johnston’s four-year-old has earned a crack at this sort of company and I don’t think the jockeys in behind will be keen to give him too much rope out in front. He needs a career-best to win a race of this calibre but he is still respected.







Connections of Breton Rock will be hoping that the rain continues to fall at Epsom as the eight-year-old tends to save his best form for soft ground. He was third in the Lockinge behind Ribchester on his seasonal reappearance last term and a similar performance would put him right in the mix here. He would probably prefer the race to be run over 7f but is the highest-rated horse in the line-up and shouldn’t be too far away.







However, with the ground likely to be on the soft side of good, I am going to take a chance on CENTURY DREAM. Simon Crisford’s four-year-old was progressive in handicap company last term, winning three of his last four starts and although he ran below-par when pitched into Group 2 company in April, he bounced back to form when dropped into Listed company last time. On the bare form, beating Crazy Horse by a neck is not good enough to win this race but personally I thought he won a shade cosily at the line. He also raced alone on that occasion but with Love Dreams and Arod likely to set the pace early on, he should enjoy having something to aim at. He has to prove that he is up to this grade but he is one of the few likely improvers in the field and he gets the nod in what looks an open race.






Advice





CENTURY DREAM – 1pt win @ 4/1 (General)








3.45 Epsom – Investec Corporate Banking “Dash” Handicap.






One of the strongest trends associated with the Investec Dash is that winners of this race often arrive here in good form. In fact, seven of the last ten winners had finished in the top five on their most recent outing, so it is worth looking for horses who have been running well. The nine members of this year’s field to boast such credentials are Equimou, Edward Lewis, Blue de Vega, Boom The Groom, Dark Shot, Just That Lord, Verne Castle, Tanasoq and Shamshon.







Draw bias is a subject of some conjecture in flat racing and whilst there are a variety of reasons why there may be an advantage, we are only interested in the facts here. In the Dash, seven winners in the last decade came from stall 8 or higher which is worth taking notice of. The fact that only Stone Of Folca, Desert Law and Caspian Prince have managed to defy this trend would have to be a concern for supporters of Just That Lord, Caspian Prince, Desert Law, Edward Lewis, Tarboosh, Shamshon and Storm Over.






In terms of age, there isn’t much between those aged four, five and six. If anything the six-year-olds have a slight advantage having accounted for three of the last ten winners. I would also issue a word of caution when looking at older sprinters as there have only been two recent winners aged older than seven. There are five horses which fall into this bracket this time around, the eight-year-old Lucky Beggar, the three nine-year-olds Duke Of Firenze, Caspian Prince and Pettochside and the sole ten-year-old in the race, Desert Law.





Weight can often play a big part in sprint handicaps and this race is no different. The benchmark looks to be 9st because of the last ten winners, only three have carried more than that. In this year’s field this means that the top four on the racecard, Duke Of Firenze, Caspian Prince, Equimou and Edward Lewis all miss out.





Whilst a low weight is important, horses tend to have achieved a certain level of form before they run here. When examining the official rating of winners in the last decade, we can see that six winners had a rating of 92 or above. This would suggest that the bottom eleven as they appear on the card all have something to find here.






The final factor worthy of a mention is the betting and this certainly isn’t a race that favourite backers will remember fondly. Duke Of Firenze was the last market leader to oblige five years ago and I would be reluctant to side with this year’s likely favourite Dark Shot. In fact, there are few races better than this to take a chance on an outsider with three recent winners having gone off at 20/1 or upwards.




Shortlist




BOOM THE GROOM – 6/6




Blue De Vega – 6/6




Equimou – 5/6




Conclusion





Taking everything into account, we have two runners who match all six of our key trends. Of the pair, the one who appeals most is BOOM THE GROOM, who looked a little unlucky when beaten over course and distance last time. Tony Carroll’s seven-year-old wasn’t beaten far in last year’s renewal but races here off an 11lb lower mark this time around. He has plenty of experience of this track and looks handicapped to run a big race.





Just missing out on the top spot is Blue De Vega who finished a narrow second at Thirsk on his most recent outing. The five-year-old was third in the Irish 2000 Guineas in his younger days but has been campaigned over sprint trips since joining Robert Cowell at the end of last season. He probably wouldn’t want the ground too soft but he also looks well-handicapped on his old form.





The shortlist is completed by Equimou who with 9st 3lb on her back, just misses the weight trend. Robert Eddery’s four-year-old ran a fine race to finish fourth in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes last time, a performance which would give her leading claims here. She handles cut in the ground and if she can overcome that weight back in handicap company, she could outrun her odds.




Advice




BOOM THE GROOM – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Sky Bet) (6 places – 1/5 odds)







4.30 Epsom – The Investec Derby (Group 1)





Saxon Warrior has been strong favourite for the Derby since his impressive win in the 2,000 Guineas and he will be bidding to make it back-to-back wins in the Epsom Classic for leading trainer Aidan O’Brien. The colt is unbeaten in four career starts (all over a mile), proving to be a high-class two-year-old with success in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster. That victory was a landmark 26th Group 1 win of the season for his trainer, who has always thought that the colt would be better over middle distances. However, the Guineas was seen as an ideal starting point for Saxon Warrior’s three-year-old campaign and he travelled well over the mile before quickening clear of his rivals to provide O’Brien with his 300th top-level success. He showed a lot of pace that day but the extra distance of the Derby should not be a problem for the son of Deep Impact. He looks to be a high-class prospect and could be hard to be beat on Saturday, although negatives are that he has to overcome being drawn in stall one and would have preferred if the rain had avoided Epsom.






Another who wanted quicker ground is the John Gosden-trained Roaring Lion who only lost out to Saxon Warrior by a neck in the Racing Post Trophy last year. He had won his first three starts, including the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Newmarket, and looked like he was going to get the better of Saxon Warrior at Doncaster. He travelled smoothly through the race and moved stylishly into the lead inside the final furlong, but the Irish raider battled back close home. The son of Kitten’s Joy ran well to finish fifth in the 2,000 Guineas on his seasonal reappearance, looking like he would be suited by a step up in trip, and he then went on to land the Dante in good style by four and a half lengths. Afterwards his trainer was unsure about the Derby thinking that ten furlongs would be his optimum, but has decided to let the colt take his chance in the Derby. However, the soft conditions have now gone against Roaring Lion.





Preference to take on the favourite is HAZAPOUR who represents the 2016 Derby-winning trainer Dermot Weld. After showing promise in three races as a juvenile, finishing third in a Group 3 on his final run, he made a winning start to 2018 in the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown. The race has traditionally been a strong pointer towards the Epsom Classic and in this year’s renewal HAZAPOUR moved nicely through the contest before keeping on well to see off his rivals. Aidan O’Brien’s Delano Roosevelt was closing towards the finish but the winner was always holding him, with The Pentagon in third place. The step up in trip from ten furlongs should suit HAZAPOUR, a nephew to Weld’s Derby winner Harzand, and the ground will help him as it has a negative impact on the others. Connections moved early to book Frankie Dettori to ride and the colt can make a bold bid to win the Derby.





In addition to Leopardstown, another key trial for Epsom is the Chester Vase which was won this year by Young Rascal for William Haggas. The colt has progressed well this year, landing a twenty-runner maiden at Newbury before stepping up to Group 3 level at Chester. It was a good performance that day as he had to switch around horses before winning with a bit in hand from Mark Johnston’s Dee Ex Bee. However, he will need to find more again to get the better of the Irish challengers at Epsom.





Advice





HAZAPOUR – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (bet365) (3 places – 1/4 odds)







5.15 Epsom – The Investec Out Of The Ordinary Handicap






The top two from last year return to compete in the race again in 2018, with Soldier In Action hoping to make it consecutive wins in the contest.



Trained by Mark Johnston, he won well in the previous renewal as he found extra inside the final furlong to score by two lengths under James Doyle, who is booked to ride again year. He was successful in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood over a mile and six furlongs later that summer and has typically been kept busy by his trainer since then. However, the five-year-old has not shown much form in five starts this season (the first three on the all-weather) so he will need to bounce back to form to make it back-to-back wins in this Epsom handicap.






Eddystone Rock was the runner-up last year as his usual hold-up tactics were employed before he came with a late run. He has put up some good efforts in handicaps subsequently for John Best, including a win at York over ten and a half furlongs. Now a six-year-old, he has not had many tries over a mile and half but confirmed that he stays well in his final run of last season at Doncaster, finishing third in the November Handicap on soft ground. With his usual running style he needs luck in running but did not get it that day, having to be switched before coming home strongly. Eddystone Rock can give his running again on Saturday but will need things to drop right for win purposes from his wide draw.






Mark Johnston saddles two in the line-up and preference is for STAR OF THE EAST to provide his trainer with another victory in the race. The four-year-old has been in fine form since switched back to turf this season, winning two of his three starts and finishing second on the other occasion. Both of his successes this year have been at Chester with his most recent coming last week in a class 3 over an extended mile and five furlongs. He was prominent throughout the race and showed a good attitude to hold off the William Haggas-trained Humble Hero, with the pair coming clear of the rest of the field. STAR OF THE EAST is now back up in class, but a 4lb rise for his latest success looks fair and he can continue his good form. The four-year old has also won at Epsom earlier in his career and on heavy ground at Haydock last year, so conditions should not be a problem for him.





Another with course form in the line-up who has to be respected is the Dominic Elsworth-trained, Dash Of Spice. He has only had the five starts in his career so far, winning once and finishing runner-up three times. Two of those second place finishes have been at Epsom, including over ten furlongs on heavy ground last year in a maiden. The four-year-old made his seasonal reappearance at the course this year, where he again finished second to Roger Varian’s Ajman King. Upped to eleven furlongs next time on the all-weather at Kempton, he raced keenly after being bumped but still saw out his race strongly to finish second. He can go well again at Epsom with Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle.





Advice





STAR OF THE EAST – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Sky Bet) (5 places – 1/5 odds)







5.50 Epsom – The Investec Asset Management Handicap Stakes (For The Tokyo Trophy)






The lucky last is perennially a devilishly difficult puzzle to try and solve and this year’s renewal looks no different.



Ashpan Sam seems the logical starting point having landed back-to-back renewals in 2014 & 2015 and added to his course and distance tally last July. He has been well beaten in each of the last two runnings but he was making his seasonal bow on each occasion and his record fresh isn’t great. With that in mind, it bodes really well for him that he looked in something like top form when third on his reappearance in a valuable Newbury handicap a fortnight ago and he returns to his favourite venue off that same mark of 86. It’s probably fair to say that he isn’t quite the force of old but the grand old stager will likely give his running and could well make the frame.





David O’Meara looks to hold a strong had here with Watchable and Al Qahwa and it is the latter that looks the most likely of the pair to get involved. The five-year-old was pretty inconsistent last year after scoring at York’s Dante Festival in May, showing flashes that he could land another big pot on occasion while proving most disappointing when well fancied on others. His runner-up effort at Ripon on return was one of the former but the handicapper has edged him up 2lb for that to a mark of 98, a mark which he found it difficult to get competitive from last year. At what looks again to be a fairly short price for a race of this nature, I think he is probably best watched on this occasion.






Sprinting specialist Paul Midgley is another double-handed here with a pair of outsiders in Russian Realm and Manshood, but it is the former that appeals to me here. The veteran was well beaten last time out but that was on fast going and he seems to be much more at home nowadays with ease in the ground. He is just 2lb higher than when scoring at Haydock last summer and has shown himself to be in decent form with a trio of placed efforts to open the campaign. He’s probably not quite good enough to bag a race like this at this stage of his career but lurks on a handy 8st 3lb towards the bottom of the weights and it would be folly to dismiss him entirely.






However, it is another outsider that catches my eye here and at 20/1, I think QUENCH DOLLY could well outrun her inflated odds. Her latest effort was disappointing but it was on ground much quicker than ideal and the easier conditions here will be more to her liking. That aside, she showed some fair form on her two previous outings this season but has still been dropped 7lb by the handicapper. That is very lenient from the typically stingy assessor and puts her 3lb below her last winning mark, when hosing up in a handicap at the Qatar Goodwood Festival last summer. That was over five furlongs but her two other wins last campaign came over today’s 6f trip and she was staying on so well that day that it doesn’t rate a concern. This race has been known to throw up the odd big price winner over the years and I think there could well be another in the offing here.




Advice




QUENCH DOLLY – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (bet365, BetVictor & Sky Bet) (4 places – 1/4 odds)

my m8 given me
3 40 m jeremiah 6/1

2 25 polly douglas 11/2 ew

pace maker for hannons i dont beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeelieve it ,as victor would say 

jeramiah to get us back on track 340

4 15 odds on oli is a booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooma

Did you do lucky beggar in the extra place market.

4 55 m r/fc r/tc
Landing Night @div
Sat - 4:55 Musselburgh - Win
Open
Oriental Lilly @div
Sat - 4:55 Musselburgh - Win
Open
Economic Crisis @div
Sat - 4:55 Musselburgh - Win
Open

well done m8 im not doin bad rockwood done me good

as the sheik won a radio ?

agree

sam gold to get money back 5 25

Bloody donkey.

600 chepstow i did UPENDED first run for this trainer and steps up in distance.in my notebook from last year.

Also done Distant high 33/1 and also extra place market.