Post by beakers2 on Jun 20, 2018 4:10:12 GMT
2.30 Ascot – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2)
Won twice in the last three years by a Wesley Ward-trained raider from the USA, it’s no surprise to see CHELSEA CLOISTERS a fairly short priced favourite. This filly has been subject to a plethora of positive reports and bluster, so from a camp that has done so well in this race with fillies that have been so far ahead of their European counterparts, this has all the hallmarks of another filly that could well blow the field away. Her debut was an eased-down 8-length success at Keeneland and if she’s come on for that, she’ll be a seriously tough filly to beat – a cording to many trainers, they’re all already playing for second place and while that’s a dangerous thing to assume given she’s just a once-raced two-year-old filly, the trainers’ record combined with her breeding (related to plenty of good winners) and stable confidence makes me think that she may well be another in the line of sensational fillies to come over from the US and win this.
As for threats, Jessie Harrington’s Servalan looks a big price on what she’s achieved so far – she comfortably disposed of Aidan O’Brien’s So Perfect over six furlongs at Naas last time and it surprises me to see her at double the price of that rival here despite the drop back to five furlongs. She was unfortunate not to win over five on her debut at Dundalk, showing plenty of pace despite being hampered and I think that, over this stiff five furlongs, she’ll go well.
Matthieu Palussiere’s Forever In Dreams is an interesting contender after two starts which ended up in two wins. He saddled Different League to Royal Ascot glory last year and he could well have another smart filly on his hands here. She’s won over five and six furlongs already and looks a useful sort, but the question would be over the ground – she’s not raced on anything quicker than good to soft, so it remains to be seen if she’ll handle the ground.
Clive Cox’s Shades of Blue was an impressive winner on her debut and deserves her place here, especially given that the horse she beat, Come On Leicester, won next time out and is also engaged here. Cox’s filly won well over C&D despite being noisy and green and given natural improvement from a filly’s first visit to the track, she might run a very good race indeed. She’s got a lovely turn of foot and if there’s a decent pace on, she may get the chance to show that.
The final filly that I’d be interested in is Henry Candy’s Kurious, who was a deeply impressive winner of a Sandown novice just 13 days ago. Her owners won the race 12 months ago thanks to Heartache and this filly could well provide Hot to Trot Racing with another big run. She made all from a tricky draw at Sandown and that was a good effort over a similarly owned filly from Clive Cox’s yard (Hearwarming) who had been talked up plenty. She showed a nice turn of foot and good attitude that day and could well come in a lot for that, so should certainly be respected.
Advice
CHELSEA CLOISTERS – 2pts win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
3.05 Ascot – Queen’s Vase (Group 2)
The Aidan O’Brien cohort has locked out three of the first four spots in the betting for this 1m6f Group 2 and, being three of the highest rated horses in a level-weights contest, there are obvious reasons why that’s reasonable, not least because he’s won the race on four of the last eight runnings. Kew Gardens heads the market and despite his flop in the Derby, he comes into the race with strong claims after his second in the Lingfield Derby Trial and third to Mildenberger in the Feilden Stakes. His form is right up there with the best we can see in the race and he is the choice (presumably he had the choice!) of Ryan Moore, so there’s obviously stable confidence that he’ll go well. However, I’m not certain that the trip will be ideal for him – he’s only won over a mile and a quarter so far and hasn’t proved that he really gets a mile and a half just yet, even though he plugged on OK for second at Lingfield. He’s related to a lot of 6f – 1m horses and I just wonder whether he’ll be found out in the closing stages. At a skinny-looking 3/1, I’m willing to look elsewhere.
The highest-rated horse in the race is O’Brien’s NELSON, the winner of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown on heavy ground in April and a neck second to Roaring Lion in the Royal Lodge as a two-year-old. That Leopardstown race showed his quality as well as his ability to grind it out from the front and while he disappointed in the Derrinstown Stud Derby trial a month later, he surely went too hard too early there and was picked up in the final couple of furlongs. On his pedigree, he looks as if he’ll stay this trip, being out of Dalakhani mare, Moonstone, who stayed a mile and a half well (Irish oaks winner) and being by Frankel who seems to produce horses with plenty of stamina. Donnacha O’Brien keeps the ride after partnering the colt in all but two of his seven starts and if he can get him settled in a prominent position through the race, I think this colt has more than enough ability to take care of this field.
Southern France is the last of O’Brien’s three runners and is the least exposed of the three, with just three starts under his belt. He’s already won at a mile and a half and a mile and five furlongs, so stamina certainly shouldn’t be a problem, neither should the ground as his last win came on good to firm. That victory over Joseph O’Brien’s Drapers Guild was cosy enough despite the winning margin of half a length and he’s probably better than his rating of 95 suggests, but if that rival is a 20/1 shot with seemingly little chance up against these higher-class horses, I think this Galileo colt must improve plenty to play a hand.
Outside of Ballydoyle, Stream Of Stars looks like he’ll play a part in this after winning nicely on just his second start for John Gosden, who won this last year with smart stayer Stradivarius. His one and a half length win over a mile and a half here showed that he’ll have no issues with track, trip or ground as he powered on strongly to defeat some useful horses, including Corgi, who won a handicap off a mark of 85 at Sandown next time out. Clearly, he’ll have to improve plenty to trouble O’Brien’s class horses, but after just two starts and being in excellent hands, it’s hard to rule out such improvement. He does look a skinny price on what he’s done so far though.
Gosden also saddles Almoghared, who is a half-brother to the magnificent Taghrooda and has shown ability in two starts so far at a mile and a half. He looks as if he’s got plenty of stamina and no small amount of ability, but the races he’s contested so far have been a world away from what he’ll face here. Again, improvement is certainly required and can’t be ruled out, but this horse looks to have a bit of a mountain to climb to be competitive.
Advice
NELSON – 1pt win @ 9/2 (bet365)
3.40 Ascot – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
Hydrangea is currently a strong favourite for the race as she bids to improve on her third-place finish in the Coronation Stakes at the Royal meeting last year. The daughter of Galileo progressed into a high-class filly for Aidan O’Brien in 2017, landing two Group 1s in the autumn. Her first victory at the highest level was over a mile in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, where she got the better of her excellent stablemate Winter. She then finished a close second to another stablemate Rhododendron in the Prix de l’Opera at Chantilly before capping off her season with success in the Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes. She stayed on well to win at Ascot over the mile and a half trip, getting the better of the French-trained Bateel as she looked suited by the step up in distance. Hydrangea has shown that she is effective over a mile, but the way that she won at Ascot suggests that she may now be better over further.
Another with Royal Ascot form from 2017 is Aljazzi who was runner-up in this race last year for Marco Botti. She performed well at Group level throughout last season after starting her campaign with a Listed success at Kempton. She was then stepped up in grade and put up a big effort in the Duke of Cambridge to finish runner-up by three quarters of a length to the French raider Qemah. The filly proved that to be no fluke as she went on to land the Group 3 Atlanta Stakes at Sandown by three lengths from the John Gosden-trained Nathra. She then finished 2017 with midfield finishes in the Group 1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket and the Grade 2 Goldikova Stakes at Del Mar, only beaten by just over five lengths on both occasions. Aljazzi made a promising reappearance in April against the males in the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Sandown and she can make a bold bid for Royal Ascot success on Wednesday.
However, preference is for the lightly-raced TOMYRIS to continue her progress with a big run in the Duke of Cambridge. The filly has been held in high-regard by Roger Varian and contested this race last year on only her fourth career start. After winning a Listed race at York prior to Ascot, she finished sixth at Ascot but did not get the clearest of runs that day. She then went on to finish third in two Group 3s at Glorious Goodwood and Doncaster. TOMYRIS made a successful start to her 2018 campaign last month, winning the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at Lingfield as she stayed on well to get the better of David O’Meara’s Lincoln Rocks. She can build on that victory and put up a good performance at the Royal meeting.
Of the rest of the line-up, Wilamina also had solid form to her name last season for Martyn Meade, including a Listed success at Nottingham and a second-place finish in a Group 2 at the Curragh. She has shown improvement in her two starts as a five-year-old so far, finishing runner-up to the smart Wuheida in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket and then winning the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom on Derby Day. She can run her race again at Ascot but may find one or two too strong for her.
Advice
TOMYRIS – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes)
4.20 Ascot – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1)
This year’s renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes has a small but select field of seven runners as a strong favourite dominates the betting for the race.
The market leader is the John Gosden-trained Cracksman who has developed into a high class colt and looks to have even more to offer this year. The son of Frankel finished a close third in the Derby last year before finishing runner-up in the Irish equivalent, only failing to overhaul the subsequent St Leger winner Capri by a neck. That run was the last time that Cracksman has suffered defeat as he has been successful in his five races since. He added two Group 2s, the Great Voltigeur at York and Prix Neil at Chantilly, which led to him being considered for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. However, connections always had the view that Cracksman would be better as a four-year-old and bypassed France in favour of the Champion Stakes at Ascot. The colt put up an impressive display to gain his first Group 1 victory, having far too much for his rivals on the soft ground to win by seven lengths. He has returned to training this year and picked up where he left off with further top-level success in Prix Ganay at Longchamp, winning by four lengths, and then followed up in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. Although he only just managed to get the better of Sylvester Kirk’s Salouen last time, it shows his ability that he was able to win despite struggling with the unique Epsom course. Cracksman remains one of the most exciting horses in training and will be difficult to beat in the Prince Of Wales’s, with the Ascot course expected to bring out the best in the four-year-old.
Clear second favourite in the race is Poet’s Word who will be aiming to add a Group 1 to his name this season for Sir Michael Stoute. The trainer has typically allowed the five-year-old time to develop and the horse performed consistently at Group level last year. He only finished outside of the top two once in six starts (sixth in the Hong Kong Cup) in 2017, winning the Group 3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood in August. The son of Poet’s Voice then went on to finish runner-up in two Group 1s; the Irish Champion Stakes and the equivalent race at Ascot. He was no match for Cracksman in the latter contest but should at least get closer this time around on the quicker ground. Poet’s Word has picked up where he left off this season, finishing second to Hawkbill in the Dubai Sheema Classic before getting his head back in front in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard at Sandown last month. He is the type of horse that his trainer excels with and he can put up a big effort at Royal Ascot, but it will be tough to reverse the form from the Champion Stakes with Cracksman.
Godolphin have been rejuvenated this year and Hawkbill gained the second Group 1 win of his career in the Dubai Sheema Classic when last seen in March. He beat a strong field by three lengths that day and there could be more to come from the five-year-old trained by Charlie Appleby. His other victory at the highest level came in the 2016 Eclipse at Sandown, following on from success at Royal Ascot in the Tercentenary Stakes. However, he ran below-par in the Coronation Cup at Epsom behind Cracksman last time so will have to bounce back to form to be competitive in the Prince of Wales’s.
Of the rest of the field, Aidan O’Brien has Cliffs of Moher in the race who has shown improvement this season after not progressing as hoped after his runner-up finish in the Derby (a place ahead of Cracksman). He did not record a victory in five subsequent runs in 2017, although he was campaigned at Group 1 level. However, the son of Galileo got back to winning ways at the second attempt this year as he was successful in the Group 2 Mooresbridge Stakes at Naas. He then finished a creditable second back at the highest level in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, but will need to find more again to play a part at Royal Ascot. Eminent’s three-year-old form also ties in with Cliffs of Moher and Cracksman as he was fourth in the 2017 Derby. He went on to land a Group 2 in France in August before a good effort to finish third in the Irish Champion Stakes, a place behind Poet’s Word. However, the son of Frankel disappointed on his 2018 reappearance in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester’s May Festival so he has a bit to prove now.
Advice
NO BET
5.00 Ascot – Royal Hunt Cup (HANDICAP)
In terms of age, the horses to follow in recent years have been the four-year-olds as they have accounted for seven of the last ten winners of this race. The fact that Prince Of Johanne and won at the age of six and the seven-year-old Field Of Dream won this two years later offers some solace to the older members of the line-up. However, there is no hope for Gabrial as there has been no winner older than seven since 1980.
Another strong trend surrounds the weight carried and it looks as though 9st 3lb is the summit as only two of the last ten winners have carried more than that to victory. In terms of this year’s field, this eliminates the top fifteen horses as they appear in the race card, so from Zhui Feng down to Repurcussion.
The draw can often play a big part in the outcome of a race and with thirty runners set to charge down the straight mile at Ascot, it would be useful to eliminate some of the field. Over the last decade, the middle to high numbers have been favoured as eight of the last ten winners have come from stall 11 or higher. Some of the horses drawn low in this year’s renewal include the likes of Saltonstall, Keyser Soze and Bless Him so it will be interesting if they can overcome their perceived poor draw.
When looking at the form of horses coming into the race, it is often popular to look for horses that may have won last time or have at least hit the frame. In the past, it was best to follow horses that had been out of the frame on their latest outing but seven of the last nine winners had finished no worse than fourth last time out. There are just eighteen runners in this year’s field to sit on the right side of that trend including the likes of Cape Byron, Afaak and Kynren.
When considering the official BHA rating of recent winners, we can see that seven of the last ten winners were rated 100 or higher. This stat has changed considerably in recent years as you had to be rated 97 to get in last year’s renewal. This shows how high the standard of the race is now and it could well be that we see a very good winner of the race this year.
The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and this is definitely not a race in which following the favourite has proved prudent. Forgotten Voice remains the only winning favourite in the last decade having gone off at 4/1 for Jeremy Noseda in 2009. This also seems a race in which taking a chance on one at a bigger price has been successful with six of the last eight winners having gone off 16/1 or bigger.
Shortlist
CAPE BYRON – 6/6
Escobar – 5/6
Medahim – 5/6
Kynren – 5/6
Conclusion
With all things considered, only one member of this year’s field matches all six of our trends and his name is CAPE BYRON. Roger Varian’s four-year-old was well-fancied last time at York but probably found things happening a little bit quickly for him and he should be suited by the stiffer mile at Ascot. He seems to have got the best of the draw in stall 25 and with the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time likely to eke out further improvement from this lightly-raced colt, he looks to have a leading chance.
Just missing out on the top spot is Escobar who got back to winning ways at Haydock last week. Now trained by David O’Meara, the four-year-old was considered a Classic prospect by Hugo Palmer at the end of his 2yo season. He could still be well-handicapped on his old form and despite falling just short of the official rating of 100, he looks primed for a big run.
Also missing out on just one trend is Medahim, who on a rating of 98 is also just below the desired mark. Richard Hannon’s four-year-old has been running well of late without winning but there is every chance that the return to a mile could bring about a change in fortune.
The final member of the shortlist is Kynren who has snuck in towards the foot of the weights. He looked a shade unlucky when a close second at Sandown last time and he has already showed that he handles the hustle and bustle of a big-field handicap. He looks to be a good deal better than his current mark and if he handles this quicker ground, he shouldn’t be too far away.
Advice
CAPE BYRON – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365) (5 places, 1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot – Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
The Jersey Stakes has been moved from its slot as the first race on day two to the final race on day two of the meeting. The last two renewals have produced high-class winners and the overall look of this year’s race suggests that there could be more than on top-class performer in this year’s field.
At the head of the field is James Garfield who carries a 5lb penalty for his victory in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes last September. However, despite that penalty, it is hard to see him being too far away on the form he has showed this term. He won the Greenham on his reappearance at Newbury before running well in the 2,000 Guineas (beaten just over four lengths) next time. He probably found 6f on the sharp side when dropped back for the Sandy Lane last time and this trip looks to be his optimum, so a big run is expected.
Just behind James Garfield at Newbury was Expert Eye who was all the rage for the Classics following his victory in the Vintage Stakes last year but it is fair to say he has failed to live up to that expectation since then. Sir Michael Stoute’s colt was last of nine in the Dewhurst and didn’t beat many home in the 2,000 Guineas on his most recent outing. He needs to learn to settle in order to fulfil his potential and although the slight drop back in trip should be in his favour, I think there are others with more solid claims.
Juddmonte have a second runner in the field in the shape of Purser who has won his last two starts for John Gosden. On both occasions, the winning margin has been narrow but he has showed a good attitude which should stand him in good stead as he steps up in grade. He needs to improve again to go close here and he may just be vulnerable to a top-class performer.
Gosden looks to have stronger claims with Emaraaty who at this stage heads the market. A very-well bred son of Dubawi, aside from a below-par run in the Dewhurst, he has done little wrong in his career to date. His performance under a big weight was very good, just going down to another of today’s rivals Society Power in the closing stages. He was conceding 10lb to the winner on that occasion and off level weights, I expect him to turn that form around here.
As well as Society Power, William Haggas also saddles Headway who looks likely to be suited by the drop back to 7f. You can put a line through his run in the 2000 Guineas as he got worked up beforehand and as long as he behaves himself here, I don’t think he will be too far away. He wasn’t far off the best of the 2yos around last year and he looks one of the leading contenders here.
The only trainer to have saddled more than one winner of this race in the last decade is Aidan O’Brien and he is doubly represented this time around. The pedigree of St Patrick’s Day is interesting as he is a full-brother to American Triple Crown winner American Pharoah but the pick of the Ballydoyle pair looks to be COULD IT BE LOVE. The War Front filly boasts Classic form having finished a close eighth in the French 1000 Guineas before finding only Alpha Centauri too good in the Irish equivalent. That form is arguably the strongest on offer here and I think she should appreciate the drop back to 7f. Aidan O’Brien has a pretty good record in this race and with no obvious standout in the field, I think she is worth an each-way bet at 8/1.
Advice
COULD IT BE LOVE – 0.5pt e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power) (5 places)
Won twice in the last three years by a Wesley Ward-trained raider from the USA, it’s no surprise to see CHELSEA CLOISTERS a fairly short priced favourite. This filly has been subject to a plethora of positive reports and bluster, so from a camp that has done so well in this race with fillies that have been so far ahead of their European counterparts, this has all the hallmarks of another filly that could well blow the field away. Her debut was an eased-down 8-length success at Keeneland and if she’s come on for that, she’ll be a seriously tough filly to beat – a cording to many trainers, they’re all already playing for second place and while that’s a dangerous thing to assume given she’s just a once-raced two-year-old filly, the trainers’ record combined with her breeding (related to plenty of good winners) and stable confidence makes me think that she may well be another in the line of sensational fillies to come over from the US and win this.
As for threats, Jessie Harrington’s Servalan looks a big price on what she’s achieved so far – she comfortably disposed of Aidan O’Brien’s So Perfect over six furlongs at Naas last time and it surprises me to see her at double the price of that rival here despite the drop back to five furlongs. She was unfortunate not to win over five on her debut at Dundalk, showing plenty of pace despite being hampered and I think that, over this stiff five furlongs, she’ll go well.
Matthieu Palussiere’s Forever In Dreams is an interesting contender after two starts which ended up in two wins. He saddled Different League to Royal Ascot glory last year and he could well have another smart filly on his hands here. She’s won over five and six furlongs already and looks a useful sort, but the question would be over the ground – she’s not raced on anything quicker than good to soft, so it remains to be seen if she’ll handle the ground.
Clive Cox’s Shades of Blue was an impressive winner on her debut and deserves her place here, especially given that the horse she beat, Come On Leicester, won next time out and is also engaged here. Cox’s filly won well over C&D despite being noisy and green and given natural improvement from a filly’s first visit to the track, she might run a very good race indeed. She’s got a lovely turn of foot and if there’s a decent pace on, she may get the chance to show that.
The final filly that I’d be interested in is Henry Candy’s Kurious, who was a deeply impressive winner of a Sandown novice just 13 days ago. Her owners won the race 12 months ago thanks to Heartache and this filly could well provide Hot to Trot Racing with another big run. She made all from a tricky draw at Sandown and that was a good effort over a similarly owned filly from Clive Cox’s yard (Hearwarming) who had been talked up plenty. She showed a nice turn of foot and good attitude that day and could well come in a lot for that, so should certainly be respected.
Advice
CHELSEA CLOISTERS – 2pts win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
3.05 Ascot – Queen’s Vase (Group 2)
The Aidan O’Brien cohort has locked out three of the first four spots in the betting for this 1m6f Group 2 and, being three of the highest rated horses in a level-weights contest, there are obvious reasons why that’s reasonable, not least because he’s won the race on four of the last eight runnings. Kew Gardens heads the market and despite his flop in the Derby, he comes into the race with strong claims after his second in the Lingfield Derby Trial and third to Mildenberger in the Feilden Stakes. His form is right up there with the best we can see in the race and he is the choice (presumably he had the choice!) of Ryan Moore, so there’s obviously stable confidence that he’ll go well. However, I’m not certain that the trip will be ideal for him – he’s only won over a mile and a quarter so far and hasn’t proved that he really gets a mile and a half just yet, even though he plugged on OK for second at Lingfield. He’s related to a lot of 6f – 1m horses and I just wonder whether he’ll be found out in the closing stages. At a skinny-looking 3/1, I’m willing to look elsewhere.
The highest-rated horse in the race is O’Brien’s NELSON, the winner of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown on heavy ground in April and a neck second to Roaring Lion in the Royal Lodge as a two-year-old. That Leopardstown race showed his quality as well as his ability to grind it out from the front and while he disappointed in the Derrinstown Stud Derby trial a month later, he surely went too hard too early there and was picked up in the final couple of furlongs. On his pedigree, he looks as if he’ll stay this trip, being out of Dalakhani mare, Moonstone, who stayed a mile and a half well (Irish oaks winner) and being by Frankel who seems to produce horses with plenty of stamina. Donnacha O’Brien keeps the ride after partnering the colt in all but two of his seven starts and if he can get him settled in a prominent position through the race, I think this colt has more than enough ability to take care of this field.
Southern France is the last of O’Brien’s three runners and is the least exposed of the three, with just three starts under his belt. He’s already won at a mile and a half and a mile and five furlongs, so stamina certainly shouldn’t be a problem, neither should the ground as his last win came on good to firm. That victory over Joseph O’Brien’s Drapers Guild was cosy enough despite the winning margin of half a length and he’s probably better than his rating of 95 suggests, but if that rival is a 20/1 shot with seemingly little chance up against these higher-class horses, I think this Galileo colt must improve plenty to play a hand.
Outside of Ballydoyle, Stream Of Stars looks like he’ll play a part in this after winning nicely on just his second start for John Gosden, who won this last year with smart stayer Stradivarius. His one and a half length win over a mile and a half here showed that he’ll have no issues with track, trip or ground as he powered on strongly to defeat some useful horses, including Corgi, who won a handicap off a mark of 85 at Sandown next time out. Clearly, he’ll have to improve plenty to trouble O’Brien’s class horses, but after just two starts and being in excellent hands, it’s hard to rule out such improvement. He does look a skinny price on what he’s done so far though.
Gosden also saddles Almoghared, who is a half-brother to the magnificent Taghrooda and has shown ability in two starts so far at a mile and a half. He looks as if he’s got plenty of stamina and no small amount of ability, but the races he’s contested so far have been a world away from what he’ll face here. Again, improvement is certainly required and can’t be ruled out, but this horse looks to have a bit of a mountain to climb to be competitive.
Advice
NELSON – 1pt win @ 9/2 (bet365)
3.40 Ascot – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
Hydrangea is currently a strong favourite for the race as she bids to improve on her third-place finish in the Coronation Stakes at the Royal meeting last year. The daughter of Galileo progressed into a high-class filly for Aidan O’Brien in 2017, landing two Group 1s in the autumn. Her first victory at the highest level was over a mile in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, where she got the better of her excellent stablemate Winter. She then finished a close second to another stablemate Rhododendron in the Prix de l’Opera at Chantilly before capping off her season with success in the Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes. She stayed on well to win at Ascot over the mile and a half trip, getting the better of the French-trained Bateel as she looked suited by the step up in distance. Hydrangea has shown that she is effective over a mile, but the way that she won at Ascot suggests that she may now be better over further.
Another with Royal Ascot form from 2017 is Aljazzi who was runner-up in this race last year for Marco Botti. She performed well at Group level throughout last season after starting her campaign with a Listed success at Kempton. She was then stepped up in grade and put up a big effort in the Duke of Cambridge to finish runner-up by three quarters of a length to the French raider Qemah. The filly proved that to be no fluke as she went on to land the Group 3 Atlanta Stakes at Sandown by three lengths from the John Gosden-trained Nathra. She then finished 2017 with midfield finishes in the Group 1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket and the Grade 2 Goldikova Stakes at Del Mar, only beaten by just over five lengths on both occasions. Aljazzi made a promising reappearance in April against the males in the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Sandown and she can make a bold bid for Royal Ascot success on Wednesday.
However, preference is for the lightly-raced TOMYRIS to continue her progress with a big run in the Duke of Cambridge. The filly has been held in high-regard by Roger Varian and contested this race last year on only her fourth career start. After winning a Listed race at York prior to Ascot, she finished sixth at Ascot but did not get the clearest of runs that day. She then went on to finish third in two Group 3s at Glorious Goodwood and Doncaster. TOMYRIS made a successful start to her 2018 campaign last month, winning the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at Lingfield as she stayed on well to get the better of David O’Meara’s Lincoln Rocks. She can build on that victory and put up a good performance at the Royal meeting.
Of the rest of the line-up, Wilamina also had solid form to her name last season for Martyn Meade, including a Listed success at Nottingham and a second-place finish in a Group 2 at the Curragh. She has shown improvement in her two starts as a five-year-old so far, finishing runner-up to the smart Wuheida in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket and then winning the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom on Derby Day. She can run her race again at Ascot but may find one or two too strong for her.
Advice
TOMYRIS – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes)
4.20 Ascot – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1)
This year’s renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes has a small but select field of seven runners as a strong favourite dominates the betting for the race.
The market leader is the John Gosden-trained Cracksman who has developed into a high class colt and looks to have even more to offer this year. The son of Frankel finished a close third in the Derby last year before finishing runner-up in the Irish equivalent, only failing to overhaul the subsequent St Leger winner Capri by a neck. That run was the last time that Cracksman has suffered defeat as he has been successful in his five races since. He added two Group 2s, the Great Voltigeur at York and Prix Neil at Chantilly, which led to him being considered for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. However, connections always had the view that Cracksman would be better as a four-year-old and bypassed France in favour of the Champion Stakes at Ascot. The colt put up an impressive display to gain his first Group 1 victory, having far too much for his rivals on the soft ground to win by seven lengths. He has returned to training this year and picked up where he left off with further top-level success in Prix Ganay at Longchamp, winning by four lengths, and then followed up in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. Although he only just managed to get the better of Sylvester Kirk’s Salouen last time, it shows his ability that he was able to win despite struggling with the unique Epsom course. Cracksman remains one of the most exciting horses in training and will be difficult to beat in the Prince Of Wales’s, with the Ascot course expected to bring out the best in the four-year-old.
Clear second favourite in the race is Poet’s Word who will be aiming to add a Group 1 to his name this season for Sir Michael Stoute. The trainer has typically allowed the five-year-old time to develop and the horse performed consistently at Group level last year. He only finished outside of the top two once in six starts (sixth in the Hong Kong Cup) in 2017, winning the Group 3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood in August. The son of Poet’s Voice then went on to finish runner-up in two Group 1s; the Irish Champion Stakes and the equivalent race at Ascot. He was no match for Cracksman in the latter contest but should at least get closer this time around on the quicker ground. Poet’s Word has picked up where he left off this season, finishing second to Hawkbill in the Dubai Sheema Classic before getting his head back in front in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard at Sandown last month. He is the type of horse that his trainer excels with and he can put up a big effort at Royal Ascot, but it will be tough to reverse the form from the Champion Stakes with Cracksman.
Godolphin have been rejuvenated this year and Hawkbill gained the second Group 1 win of his career in the Dubai Sheema Classic when last seen in March. He beat a strong field by three lengths that day and there could be more to come from the five-year-old trained by Charlie Appleby. His other victory at the highest level came in the 2016 Eclipse at Sandown, following on from success at Royal Ascot in the Tercentenary Stakes. However, he ran below-par in the Coronation Cup at Epsom behind Cracksman last time so will have to bounce back to form to be competitive in the Prince of Wales’s.
Of the rest of the field, Aidan O’Brien has Cliffs of Moher in the race who has shown improvement this season after not progressing as hoped after his runner-up finish in the Derby (a place ahead of Cracksman). He did not record a victory in five subsequent runs in 2017, although he was campaigned at Group 1 level. However, the son of Galileo got back to winning ways at the second attempt this year as he was successful in the Group 2 Mooresbridge Stakes at Naas. He then finished a creditable second back at the highest level in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, but will need to find more again to play a part at Royal Ascot. Eminent’s three-year-old form also ties in with Cliffs of Moher and Cracksman as he was fourth in the 2017 Derby. He went on to land a Group 2 in France in August before a good effort to finish third in the Irish Champion Stakes, a place behind Poet’s Word. However, the son of Frankel disappointed on his 2018 reappearance in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester’s May Festival so he has a bit to prove now.
Advice
NO BET
5.00 Ascot – Royal Hunt Cup (HANDICAP)
In terms of age, the horses to follow in recent years have been the four-year-olds as they have accounted for seven of the last ten winners of this race. The fact that Prince Of Johanne and won at the age of six and the seven-year-old Field Of Dream won this two years later offers some solace to the older members of the line-up. However, there is no hope for Gabrial as there has been no winner older than seven since 1980.
Another strong trend surrounds the weight carried and it looks as though 9st 3lb is the summit as only two of the last ten winners have carried more than that to victory. In terms of this year’s field, this eliminates the top fifteen horses as they appear in the race card, so from Zhui Feng down to Repurcussion.
The draw can often play a big part in the outcome of a race and with thirty runners set to charge down the straight mile at Ascot, it would be useful to eliminate some of the field. Over the last decade, the middle to high numbers have been favoured as eight of the last ten winners have come from stall 11 or higher. Some of the horses drawn low in this year’s renewal include the likes of Saltonstall, Keyser Soze and Bless Him so it will be interesting if they can overcome their perceived poor draw.
When looking at the form of horses coming into the race, it is often popular to look for horses that may have won last time or have at least hit the frame. In the past, it was best to follow horses that had been out of the frame on their latest outing but seven of the last nine winners had finished no worse than fourth last time out. There are just eighteen runners in this year’s field to sit on the right side of that trend including the likes of Cape Byron, Afaak and Kynren.
When considering the official BHA rating of recent winners, we can see that seven of the last ten winners were rated 100 or higher. This stat has changed considerably in recent years as you had to be rated 97 to get in last year’s renewal. This shows how high the standard of the race is now and it could well be that we see a very good winner of the race this year.
The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and this is definitely not a race in which following the favourite has proved prudent. Forgotten Voice remains the only winning favourite in the last decade having gone off at 4/1 for Jeremy Noseda in 2009. This also seems a race in which taking a chance on one at a bigger price has been successful with six of the last eight winners having gone off 16/1 or bigger.
Shortlist
CAPE BYRON – 6/6
Escobar – 5/6
Medahim – 5/6
Kynren – 5/6
Conclusion
With all things considered, only one member of this year’s field matches all six of our trends and his name is CAPE BYRON. Roger Varian’s four-year-old was well-fancied last time at York but probably found things happening a little bit quickly for him and he should be suited by the stiffer mile at Ascot. He seems to have got the best of the draw in stall 25 and with the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time likely to eke out further improvement from this lightly-raced colt, he looks to have a leading chance.
Just missing out on the top spot is Escobar who got back to winning ways at Haydock last week. Now trained by David O’Meara, the four-year-old was considered a Classic prospect by Hugo Palmer at the end of his 2yo season. He could still be well-handicapped on his old form and despite falling just short of the official rating of 100, he looks primed for a big run.
Also missing out on just one trend is Medahim, who on a rating of 98 is also just below the desired mark. Richard Hannon’s four-year-old has been running well of late without winning but there is every chance that the return to a mile could bring about a change in fortune.
The final member of the shortlist is Kynren who has snuck in towards the foot of the weights. He looked a shade unlucky when a close second at Sandown last time and he has already showed that he handles the hustle and bustle of a big-field handicap. He looks to be a good deal better than his current mark and if he handles this quicker ground, he shouldn’t be too far away.
Advice
CAPE BYRON – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365) (5 places, 1/4 odds)
5.35 Ascot – Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
The Jersey Stakes has been moved from its slot as the first race on day two to the final race on day two of the meeting. The last two renewals have produced high-class winners and the overall look of this year’s race suggests that there could be more than on top-class performer in this year’s field.
At the head of the field is James Garfield who carries a 5lb penalty for his victory in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes last September. However, despite that penalty, it is hard to see him being too far away on the form he has showed this term. He won the Greenham on his reappearance at Newbury before running well in the 2,000 Guineas (beaten just over four lengths) next time. He probably found 6f on the sharp side when dropped back for the Sandy Lane last time and this trip looks to be his optimum, so a big run is expected.
Just behind James Garfield at Newbury was Expert Eye who was all the rage for the Classics following his victory in the Vintage Stakes last year but it is fair to say he has failed to live up to that expectation since then. Sir Michael Stoute’s colt was last of nine in the Dewhurst and didn’t beat many home in the 2,000 Guineas on his most recent outing. He needs to learn to settle in order to fulfil his potential and although the slight drop back in trip should be in his favour, I think there are others with more solid claims.
Juddmonte have a second runner in the field in the shape of Purser who has won his last two starts for John Gosden. On both occasions, the winning margin has been narrow but he has showed a good attitude which should stand him in good stead as he steps up in grade. He needs to improve again to go close here and he may just be vulnerable to a top-class performer.
Gosden looks to have stronger claims with Emaraaty who at this stage heads the market. A very-well bred son of Dubawi, aside from a below-par run in the Dewhurst, he has done little wrong in his career to date. His performance under a big weight was very good, just going down to another of today’s rivals Society Power in the closing stages. He was conceding 10lb to the winner on that occasion and off level weights, I expect him to turn that form around here.
As well as Society Power, William Haggas also saddles Headway who looks likely to be suited by the drop back to 7f. You can put a line through his run in the 2000 Guineas as he got worked up beforehand and as long as he behaves himself here, I don’t think he will be too far away. He wasn’t far off the best of the 2yos around last year and he looks one of the leading contenders here.
The only trainer to have saddled more than one winner of this race in the last decade is Aidan O’Brien and he is doubly represented this time around. The pedigree of St Patrick’s Day is interesting as he is a full-brother to American Triple Crown winner American Pharoah but the pick of the Ballydoyle pair looks to be COULD IT BE LOVE. The War Front filly boasts Classic form having finished a close eighth in the French 1000 Guineas before finding only Alpha Centauri too good in the Irish equivalent. That form is arguably the strongest on offer here and I think she should appreciate the drop back to 7f. Aidan O’Brien has a pretty good record in this race and with no obvious standout in the field, I think she is worth an each-way bet at 8/1.
Advice
COULD IT BE LOVE – 0.5pt e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power) (5 places)